The way U.S. stocks fell last night, my first thought was that the bond market should be screaming for help too. I checked Treasury yields this morning: the 10-year was down just 5 bp to 4.83%, and the 30-year was down only 3 bp. With the long end barely moving after a drop like that, it’s as if the bond market is saying: the stock market’s selloff is its own problem—don’t count on the Fed to come to the rescue.
The short end did ease, though: the 2-year fell 12.5 bp to 4.45%, and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year widened to 37 bp in one fell swoop. This yield curve is betting on no rate hike in December, not on rate cuts. The probability of a December hike on FedWatch fell from 82% to around 75%—not much of a drop.
Oil is still hovering at $91, with Brent at $99. That’s the biggest rock weighing on inflation. The nonfarm payrolls report comes out tonight at 21:30; expectations are 65,000 jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and 0.3% month-over-month wage growth. If the number comes in above 100,000, this bit of easing at the short end will be wiped out overnight.
$BTC is now at 76187, down 5.3% over 24 hours. What I’m watching right now isn’t the price chart—it’s the 2-year yield. #比特币 #美联储 #Nonfarm payrolls
The short end did ease, though: the 2-year fell 12.5 bp to 4.45%, and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year widened to 37 bp in one fell swoop. This yield curve is betting on no rate hike in December, not on rate cuts. The probability of a December hike on FedWatch fell from 82% to around 75%—not much of a drop.
Oil is still hovering at $91, with Brent at $99. That’s the biggest rock weighing on inflation. The nonfarm payrolls report comes out tonight at 21:30; expectations are 65,000 jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate, and 0.3% month-over-month wage growth. If the number comes in above 100,000, this bit of easing at the short end will be wiped out overnight.
$BTC is now at 76187, down 5.3% over 24 hours. What I’m watching right now isn’t the price chart—it’s the 2-year yield. #比特币 #美联储 #Nonfarm payrolls