Just 11 days after filing for what would be the largest IPO in history, it’s being marked down by its own people.

Major investors have questioned Anthropic’s IPO valuation, and views on the topic surged from 998 to nearly 40,000 in six hours—a nearly 40-fold increase.

First, the bull case: the fundamentals are undeniably strong:

Revenue in the first half of 2026 was $16.3 billion, versus just $1.2 billion in the same period last year—about 13 times higher. Third-quarter revenue was $17 billion, up again from $11.6 billion in the previous quarter. Operating cash flow turned positive at $3.9 billion in the first half, compared with negative $1.5 billion in the same period last year.

Its private-market valuation in May was about $965 billion, and it plans to raise up to $100 billion. If it goes public at that price, it would be the largest IPO in history. The roadshow was originally scheduled to begin the week of November 9.

Now for the bears—their concerns aren’t unfounded either:

The WSJ says all three major prospective investors believe the $1.5 trillion valuation needs to come down. One puts it closer to $1 trillion, while another has suggested delaying the IPO or cutting the fundraising target from $100 billion to $80 billion.

Reuters added another blow: investors doubt whether the roadshow can start as planned next week and whether the November listing will happen on schedule. The updated prospectus even leaves October revenue blank.

The cash burn is even more striking: computing expenses reached $8.9 billion in the first half, nearly four times the $2.3 billion in the same period last year. The company has locked in more than $430 billion in non-cancellable computing contracts, and owes Amazon, Google, and Microsoft at least $269 billion through 2036.

My take: a valuation reset doesn’t mean AI is worthless; it means pricing power is shifting from sellers back to buyers.

The difference between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion is $500 billion—that’s how much the market is willing to pay extra for the title of “largest IPO in history.”

There are just two key things to watch: whether the roadshow actually starts the week of November 9, and whether the pricing range comes in above $1.4 trillion.

The spillover into crypto is direct: the AI narrative is the anchor for risk assets in this cycle. After the Nasdaq shed about $2.5 trillion in a single day and Anthropic cut prices again, risk appetite won’t recover in the short term.

$BTC is currently at $76,068, having just reclaimed $76,000. But until it gets back above and holds $79,400, treat this as a rebound; if it falls below $75,000 and can’t recover, look for a deeper drop. No bets on direction before the nonfarm payrolls report at 9:30 p.m. tonight.

Invalidation conditions: if the roadshow starts on schedule and pricing is at least $1.4 trillion, or if markets strengthen on high volume after the nonfarm payrolls report, my call is off.

If Anthropic really cuts its IPO price, are you buying?