Nasdaq closes down 5.52%, enters correction territory; BTC back to 76K overnight: first watch the 16:00 options expiry today, then wait for tonight’s nonfarm payrolls
First, the strongest set of numbers: the Nasdaq closed down 5.52% last night at 24,315, down 11.9% from its record close on October 6 and officially in correction territory for the second time this year. $BTC slid from above 80K; this morning it was around 76,350, down about 5.4% over 24 hours. $ETH was around 2,246, down about 7.4% over 24 hours—more than BTC. $SOL was around 90.27, down about 6.1% over 24 hours.
First, a correction: in my post at 04:38, I wrote that the Nasdaq closed down 3.2% at 24,796. That was an intraday snapshot, not the closing figure. The official close was down 5.52% at 24,315 (the AP closing scoreboard and multiple other sources agree). The correction-territory conclusion is unchanged; the actual drop was deeper. The S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Dow fell 3.44%, and the semiconductor index fell about 12.25%.
BTC’s closing sequence: it closed at 76,029 at 23:00 last night, confirming a break below 77,620—that was a genuine breakdown. All four hourly closes from 04:00 to 07:00 were below 77,620; not one recovered above it. During the 07:00 hour, the intraday low reached 75,208, pushing the three-month intraday low down another notch, but the close at 76,088 recovered above 75,568—the new low was an intraday dip below the level, not yet confirmed on a closing basis. It is now stuck in the narrow range between 75,568 and 77,620: the breakdown thesis is invalidated for now, and the low is holding for the moment.
Flows aren’t one-sided: OKX perpetual funding rates are around 0.003% for BTC and -0.002% for ETH, both close to zero. Open interest is around 3.47 million BTC contracts and 6.68 million ETH contracts, slightly higher than last night. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $1.17 billion (Woofun AI figures), mostly longs. The $1.03 billion CoinGlass figure cited in the overnight post doesn’t match this morning’s estimates from multiple sources; it needs to be checked, so I’m not drawing a conclusion.
No new independent opportunities among altcoins; they all pulled back along with the market. CYBER is the only standout on the rankings, up 25.5% over 24 hours, but I couldn’t find a clear catalyst today, so I’m just keeping it on watch rather than chasing it. INJ still has 4.2% of afterglow from yesterday’s ETF approval, but it has pulled back from its 8.58 high and its RSI is overbought, making it risky to chase. LSK has closed below 0.1919 for four consecutive candles since 04:00; it hit 0.1847 intraday at 08:00, weakening the breakout follow-through.
Two things to watch today: at 16:00 Beijing time, about $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit. Max pain is 79,000, about 3.7% above the current price. Whether price moves toward that level before expiry is today’s first variable. Then at 21:30 tonight, October nonfarm payrolls are due (expected job gains of about 62,000–65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%). The data comes five and a half hours after the options expiry, leaving a window without that protection in between. The full figures for Thursday’s ETF flows aren’t out yet; I’ll check back around noon.
My take: that 23:00 candle last night was a genuine breakdown, not a fake-out. But there were no fresh lows on the overnight closes, and buyers are still showing up around 75,500. I won’t chase shorts or buy the dip during the day; I’ll wait for the 16:00 expiry and 21:30 payrolls to set the direction. Invalidation levels: if an hourly close gets back above 77,620, I’ll withdraw last night’s “breakdown” call; if a close falls below 75,568, the three-month low is confirmed and the next move is lower.
This is just my own market log and isn’t investment advice; the market can prove me wrong either way. After tonight’s payrolls come out, are you watching for a rebound first, or new lows?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #纳斯达克 #Nonfarm
First, the strongest set of numbers: the Nasdaq closed down 5.52% last night at 24,315, down 11.9% from its record close on October 6 and officially in correction territory for the second time this year. $BTC slid from above 80K; this morning it was around 76,350, down about 5.4% over 24 hours. $ETH was around 2,246, down about 7.4% over 24 hours—more than BTC. $SOL was around 90.27, down about 6.1% over 24 hours.
First, a correction: in my post at 04:38, I wrote that the Nasdaq closed down 3.2% at 24,796. That was an intraday snapshot, not the closing figure. The official close was down 5.52% at 24,315 (the AP closing scoreboard and multiple other sources agree). The correction-territory conclusion is unchanged; the actual drop was deeper. The S&P 500 fell 4.36%, the Dow fell 3.44%, and the semiconductor index fell about 12.25%.
BTC’s closing sequence: it closed at 76,029 at 23:00 last night, confirming a break below 77,620—that was a genuine breakdown. All four hourly closes from 04:00 to 07:00 were below 77,620; not one recovered above it. During the 07:00 hour, the intraday low reached 75,208, pushing the three-month intraday low down another notch, but the close at 76,088 recovered above 75,568—the new low was an intraday dip below the level, not yet confirmed on a closing basis. It is now stuck in the narrow range between 75,568 and 77,620: the breakdown thesis is invalidated for now, and the low is holding for the moment.
Flows aren’t one-sided: OKX perpetual funding rates are around 0.003% for BTC and -0.002% for ETH, both close to zero. Open interest is around 3.47 million BTC contracts and 6.68 million ETH contracts, slightly higher than last night. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $1.17 billion (Woofun AI figures), mostly longs. The $1.03 billion CoinGlass figure cited in the overnight post doesn’t match this morning’s estimates from multiple sources; it needs to be checked, so I’m not drawing a conclusion.
No new independent opportunities among altcoins; they all pulled back along with the market. CYBER is the only standout on the rankings, up 25.5% over 24 hours, but I couldn’t find a clear catalyst today, so I’m just keeping it on watch rather than chasing it. INJ still has 4.2% of afterglow from yesterday’s ETF approval, but it has pulled back from its 8.58 high and its RSI is overbought, making it risky to chase. LSK has closed below 0.1919 for four consecutive candles since 04:00; it hit 0.1847 intraday at 08:00, weakening the breakout follow-through.
Two things to watch today: at 16:00 Beijing time, about $2.65 billion in BTC options expire on Deribit. Max pain is 79,000, about 3.7% above the current price. Whether price moves toward that level before expiry is today’s first variable. Then at 21:30 tonight, October nonfarm payrolls are due (expected job gains of about 62,000–65,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%). The data comes five and a half hours after the options expiry, leaving a window without that protection in between. The full figures for Thursday’s ETF flows aren’t out yet; I’ll check back around noon.
My take: that 23:00 candle last night was a genuine breakdown, not a fake-out. But there were no fresh lows on the overnight closes, and buyers are still showing up around 75,500. I won’t chase shorts or buy the dip during the day; I’ll wait for the 16:00 expiry and 21:30 payrolls to set the direction. Invalidation levels: if an hourly close gets back above 77,620, I’ll withdraw last night’s “breakdown” call; if a close falls below 75,568, the three-month low is confirmed and the next move is lower.
This is just my own market log and isn’t investment advice; the market can prove me wrong either way. After tonight’s payrolls come out, are you watching for a rebound first, or new lows?
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#BTC #ETH #比特币 #纳斯达克 #Nonfarm
