Withdrawals are being reopened in batches, but what’s really worth watching today isn’t the list—it’s that money is starting to flow back.
It’s still number one on the Square trending topics list: #Binance to resume withdrawals for more assets. At 14:30, it had 794,522 views and 2,184 people discussing it, up from 778,114/2,145 an hour earlier. Interest is still rising. The latest update on the official response to the security incident, #8 , says withdrawals for more assets will continue to resume today.
Here’s what the bulls are saying:
1) Replenishing 98% of the funds shows confidence. Update #7 confirms it: the SAFU Fund, Futures Insurance Fund, and the company’s own treasury are backing the shortfall. The remaining 2% consists of illiquid tokens, which are being bought back over the counter.
2) A turning point in fund flows has arrived. A Square creator post citing DeFiLlama data says Binance saw net outflows of about $3.29 billion over 24 hours, less than half the previous peak of about $7 billion. Another creator post says the 24-hour flow has turned positive, with net inflows of $2.3 billion, compared with net outflows of $3.6 billion the day before. The official account also says hourly deposits have surpassed withdrawals.
3) Prices have followed. According to figures on the Square page, $BTC is up 5.82%, $ETH is up 8.28%, and $BNB is up 4.31%. BTC is back above 79,400 at around 80,200, and the Fear & Greed Index has returned to neutral at 42.
And the bears shouldn’t pretend not to see the risks:
1) The remaining 2% is still outstanding. Buying back illiquid tokens over the counter will take time. The full zero-knowledge proof for the new reserve snapshot is still expected to take 50–60 hours to generate (according to a Square creator post). Having “taken” the snapshot doesn’t mean the proof is “ready for independent verification.”
2) Withdrawals are still resuming in batches, with no timeline for a full restoration. Alpha instant orders and withdrawals are still unavailable.
3) The attackers still hold about $2.4 billion (according to a Square creator post; the FBI has pointed to North Korea’s TraderTraitor). Being able to compensate users and preventing another attack are two different things.
My take: The resumption of withdrawals is about stopping the bleeding, not a reversal. The turning point in fund flows is a good sign, but trust will depend on whether the surplus is sustained through another round of withdrawal tests when the next batch of assets becomes available. My BTC view is unchanged: reclaiming 79,400 is just the first step toward stabilizing. Until it holds above 82,100 for 1–2 days, treat it as a rebound. If it falls below 76,500, watch 75,000. The thesis is invalidated if it reclaims and holds above 82,100 on strong volume, or if the new reserve proof doesn’t add up or net outflows surge again.
Withdrawals are reopening in batches. Will you move your long-term holdings to a cold wallet first, or leave them on the exchange and wait for the market?
It’s still number one on the Square trending topics list: #Binance to resume withdrawals for more assets. At 14:30, it had 794,522 views and 2,184 people discussing it, up from 778,114/2,145 an hour earlier. Interest is still rising. The latest update on the official response to the security incident, #8 , says withdrawals for more assets will continue to resume today.
Here’s what the bulls are saying:
1) Replenishing 98% of the funds shows confidence. Update #7 confirms it: the SAFU Fund, Futures Insurance Fund, and the company’s own treasury are backing the shortfall. The remaining 2% consists of illiquid tokens, which are being bought back over the counter.
2) A turning point in fund flows has arrived. A Square creator post citing DeFiLlama data says Binance saw net outflows of about $3.29 billion over 24 hours, less than half the previous peak of about $7 billion. Another creator post says the 24-hour flow has turned positive, with net inflows of $2.3 billion, compared with net outflows of $3.6 billion the day before. The official account also says hourly deposits have surpassed withdrawals.
3) Prices have followed. According to figures on the Square page, $BTC is up 5.82%, $ETH is up 8.28%, and $BNB is up 4.31%. BTC is back above 79,400 at around 80,200, and the Fear & Greed Index has returned to neutral at 42.
And the bears shouldn’t pretend not to see the risks:
1) The remaining 2% is still outstanding. Buying back illiquid tokens over the counter will take time. The full zero-knowledge proof for the new reserve snapshot is still expected to take 50–60 hours to generate (according to a Square creator post). Having “taken” the snapshot doesn’t mean the proof is “ready for independent verification.”
2) Withdrawals are still resuming in batches, with no timeline for a full restoration. Alpha instant orders and withdrawals are still unavailable.
3) The attackers still hold about $2.4 billion (according to a Square creator post; the FBI has pointed to North Korea’s TraderTraitor). Being able to compensate users and preventing another attack are two different things.
My take: The resumption of withdrawals is about stopping the bleeding, not a reversal. The turning point in fund flows is a good sign, but trust will depend on whether the surplus is sustained through another round of withdrawal tests when the next batch of assets becomes available. My BTC view is unchanged: reclaiming 79,400 is just the first step toward stabilizing. Until it holds above 82,100 for 1–2 days, treat it as a rebound. If it falls below 76,500, watch 75,000. The thesis is invalidated if it reclaims and holds above 82,100 on strong volume, or if the new reserve proof doesn’t add up or net outflows surge again.
Withdrawals are reopening in batches. Will you move your long-term holdings to a cold wallet first, or leave them on the exchange and wait for the market?