$BMT The previous post said to see whether 0.0289 would hold through the next four-hour candle. The answer is sort of: the low was 0.02894, just 0.14% above it, and the candle closed at 0.03025; but the new high of 0.03288 reached during this period didn’t hold, retreating 8.0% from the peak.
The first thing to ease was the cost side. The funding rate came back from -1.25% in the previous post to -0.6232%, down by half, though it’s still negative. The mark price was 0.02974, with its discount to spot narrowing to just 1.68% compared with the previous post. What caught my attention more was that while the price was still holding above the line, the reading that had been heading deeper into negative territory had already turned around.
For this level to really hold, the candle needs to close above 0.03288. Only if the reading at the 20:00 Taipei time settlement keeps moving back toward the zero line can we say the cost side has truly eased. If 0.02894 breaks, the gains made in this four-hour candle will be given back first. There’s another factor to keep in mind: the four-hour range was 13.6%—a move of that size can happen again in just an hour, and either direction would be unsurprising.
#MarketAnalysis
The first thing to ease was the cost side. The funding rate came back from -1.25% in the previous post to -0.6232%, down by half, though it’s still negative. The mark price was 0.02974, with its discount to spot narrowing to just 1.68% compared with the previous post. What caught my attention more was that while the price was still holding above the line, the reading that had been heading deeper into negative territory had already turned around.
For this level to really hold, the candle needs to close above 0.03288. Only if the reading at the 20:00 Taipei time settlement keeps moving back toward the zero line can we say the cost side has truly eased. If 0.02894 breaks, the gains made in this four-hour candle will be given back first. There’s another factor to keep in mind: the four-hour range was 13.6%—a move of that size can happen again in just an hour, and either direction would be unsurprising.
#MarketAnalysis
