Yesterday, scenario one was that support would hold, with prices ranging between 76,700 and 77,900. That scenario played out, though the swings were more intense than I’d described. In the early hours, the price touched 76,388.88, just 62.9 points above the 76,326 level from October 30, then recovered to 77,453.86. The daily candle closed up 0.83%, 638 points above the opening price of 76,816.
At 8:13 this morning, BTC was at 77,406, up 0.75% over 24 hours, with trading volume of 972 million. Yesterday, the figure was 991 million; on the October 29 crash day, it was 1.906 billion. The Fear & Greed Index stood at 34, up 8 points from yesterday’s 26 and one step out of the extreme fear zone.
Of the three trends I listed yesterday, two changed today. U.S. stocks shifted from a sharp selloff to a rebound, chip stocks rallied across the board, Nvidia’s market cap topped $5 trillion again, AMD rose nearly 8% after hours, CIFR gained over 18%, and South Korea’s KOSPI opened up 2.43%. On the geopolitical front, Trump said the U.S. currently has no plans for an immediate strike on Iran. On the Binance front, a breaking-news report gave a full postmortem: hackers lay low for four months and breached three computers. He Yi added that 57 suspected North Korea-related threats have been intercepted so far this year.
The fourth factor is new today: Election Day for the U.S. midterms. In-person voting has begun in every state except Hawaii. CNN says Democratic leaders are confident about retaking the House, and Democrats are also expected to have a chance of winning control of state legislatures in key swing states. The results are not in yet, making tonight and tomorrow a window for the market to price them in.
Third day of the death cross; the gap widens by another 107 points
The daily EMA20 is at 79,649.3 and the EMA50 at 80,026.5, a gap of 377.2 points. Two days ago it was 24.7 points, yesterday 270.6, and today 377.2—a fifteenfold widening in three days. Price is 2,243 points below the EMA20, a gap that has widened further since yesterday.
The daily EMA200 is at 76,048.9, with price 1,357 points, or 1.78%, above it. It is the only medium- to long-term moving average across all timeframes still below price, and the last line supporting the shelf zone.
RSI is 37.9, up 1.8 points from yesterday’s 36.1. The daily ATR is 1,821.8, down from 1,872.4 yesterday for the first time; volatility is contracting. The MACD histogram readings are -480.0, -424.9, and -363.1, narrowing for three consecutive readings and by a cumulative 117 points over two days. Downward momentum is easing, but the histogram is still 363 points below zero, with a long way to go before turning positive. The Bollinger lower band has moved down from yesterday’s 76,233.6 to 75,965.4. The band width is 10.48%, and it is still widening.
The 4-hour chart is the most positive part of today’s picture. All three moving averages—EMA20 at 77,630.6, EMA50 at 78,524.9, and EMA200 at 80,608.2—are above price, but price is only 224.6 points below the nearest, the EMA20. The MACD histogram has risen for three consecutive readings—+64.7, +74.1, and +77.0—and is above zero; yesterday’s -9.2 has turned positive again. RSI is 44.2, recovering from its low. Bollinger band width is 2.50%.
The 1-hour trend points the other way. The EMA20 at 77,477.2 and EMA50 at 77,501.2 are just 24 points apart, almost the same line, with price 71–95 points below them. MACD histogram readings of 96.0, 58.6, and 28.5 have fallen for three consecutive readings. They are still positive, but have already dropped by more than half. The Bollinger middle band at 77,350.1 is 56 points below price, which has just moved above it. RSI is 48.7, right in the middle.
Across the three timeframes, the 4-hour chart is recovering, the 1-hour chart is weakening, and price has moved back above the 1-hour Bollinger middle band but is stuck below two nearly overlapping 1-hour moving averages. The recovery has reached resistance.
The high gave up 800 points; the lower wick stretches 1,065
Yesterday’s daily high was 78,063.3, down 814.7 points from the previous day’s 78,878. The lows have moved down for two consecutive days: 77,517.2 to 76,705 to 76,388.88. Both highs and lows are falling, which is a descending channel. A triangle only counts as narrowing if the lows rise; for now, they are still falling.
Yesterday’s candle deserves a closer look on its own. The high was 78,063.3, the low 76,388.88, and the close 77,453.86. The upper wick was 609 points and the lower wick 1,065 points, 1.75 times longer. The full range was 1,674.4 points, or 0.92 times the daily ATR of 1,821.8—almost a full day’s normal volatility.
The 1,065-point lower wick shows buying support around 76,388. To see who stepped in, we need to look at derivatives.
Use two yardsticks. The 20-day range runs from 76,326 to 84,898; the current price of 77,406 sits at the 12.6th percentile from the bottom, up from 8.5% yesterday. The 20-candle 4-hour range runs from 76,388.9 to 78,878, with the current price at the 40.9th percentile. One yardstick puts price low in the range, the other in the lower middle. Neither is deeply oversold, but neither is safe.
Longer-term context. The all-time high of 126,080 was set on October 6, 2025; the current price is down 38.66%. The decline is 10.58% over 30 days, 4.29% over 7 days, and 27.35% over one year. The 30 daily candles cover October 6 through today. Grouped by calendar week, the declines over the past four weeks were 2.32%, 1.98%, 2.39%, and 2.25%. The current week is down 1.21% after three trading days, and the fifth candle has not closed yet. Weekly indicator data was unavailable at the time of writing. Structurally, the market has been drifting down steadily, with neither acceleration nor a weekly reversal candle.
Open interest is down 1.85% from its peak, while price has risen
Open interest was 100,514 contracts at 8 p.m. yesterday, with a notional value of $7.748 billion, the highest reading in the 44-hour snapshot window. At 8 a.m. today it was 98,654 contracts, worth $7.640 billion. Over twelve hours, open interest fell by 1,860 contracts, or 1.85%, and notional value dropped by $108 million.
From yesterday’s daily low of 76,388.88 to the current price, the rebound is 1,017 points, or 1.33%. Open interest fell as price rose. This is the exact opposite of yesterday, when open interest rose 3.6% while price moved sideways.
Break it down by time. Open interest rose steadily during the day on November 3: 99,017 at 8 a.m., 99,700 at noon, 99,988 at 4 p.m., and 100,514 at 8 p.m.—up 1,497 contracts over twelve hours. Overnight, all three readings fell: 99,564 at midnight, 99,308 at 4 a.m., and 98,654 at 8 a.m. That was a twelve-hour decline of 1,860 contracts, more than wiping out the daytime increase by 363 contracts.
Across the market, $367 million in positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, mostly longs. A substantial portion of the 1,860 contracts shed in those three overnight readings were likely closed out through these liquidations; voluntary position reductions would not all be concentrated overnight.
The funding rate is 0.01%, exactly the baseline, meaning the premium is zero. Longs are not paying to hold at the current price, and shorts are not receiving anything. This is unchanged from yesterday and suggests most of the positions at the 100,514-contract peak were short-term bets. Trend-following positions pay a premium; positions that pay nothing can leave at any time.
The long/short account ratio offers something new. The share of accounts holding longs fell across three consecutive 4-hour readings: 71.40%, 70.46%, and 69.77%. The ratios were 2.4965, 2.3852, and 2.3080. Yesterday, the reading was 71.95% and rising for three consecutive periods. Today is the first reversal, down 2.18 percentage points in eight hours.
This is the first time since October 30 that we have seen the group of long accounts around 72% start to waver. There are two ways to read it. One is stop-loss exits: weaker longs are being cleared out, which is good for a subsequent rebound. The other is that most accounts are turning short, in which case the lower wick at 76,388 was not buying support but a bull trap.
The funding rate is the deciding factor. If most accounts had really turned short, the rate should have gone negative, at least below zero. It is still at the baseline of 0.01%, so neither side is paying extra. So I read it the first way: longs are reducing positions, but no one is rushing to go short.
The order book. The best bid is 77,406.00, with 9.45 coins posted; the best ask is 77,406.01, with 2.05 coins posted. The spread is one cent. There is $730,000 in bids and $160,000 in asks, making the bid side 4.6 times thicker. An order book level lasts only minutes, so treat this as a reference point.
Key price levels
Below, the same shelf remains, with four figures packed into a 389-point range. 76,388.88 is yesterday’s low, 76,326 is the October 30 low, 76,048.9 is the daily EMA200, and the short-term holder cost basis is around 76,000. The daily Bollinger lower band has moved down from 76,233.6 to 75,965.4, putting it outside this range and making it a separate level.
The shelf is now just 62.9 points thick, the distance from 76,388.88 to 76,326. This level was tested once yesterday and held. On this second test, open interest has already fallen by 1,860 contracts, so there is less buying power to absorb the move than yesterday.
The first resistance above is 77,477.2–77,501.2, where the 1-hour EMA20 and EMA50 converge. The two lines are just 24 points apart, making this the nearest firm resistance today. The second is 77,630.6, the 4-hour EMA20 and the upper edge of the cost zone for yesterday’s new positions. The third is 78,063.3–78,170.3, yesterday’s high and the 1-hour Bollinger upper band. Above that, 78,599.3 is the 4-hour Bollinger upper band, and 78,878 is the November 2 high.
Scenario analysis
Scenario one: the shelf holds for a second time and the range-bound action continues, probability 35%. 76,326–76,388.9 holds, and price moves back and forth between 76,400 and 78,060 while the market waits for the election results and the U.S. market open tonight. Signal to watch: a 4-hour close above 77,630.6, followed by a retest that holds.
Scenario two: the shelf breaks, opening the way down to 75,000, probability 35%. The trigger is a daily close below 76,048.9, or two consecutive 4-hour closes below 76,326. After a break, the first reference is the daily Bollinger lower band at 75,965.4, followed by the round-number level of 75,000. Liquidation-intensity data was unavailable at the time of writing, so downside exposure can only be estimated based on the $7.64 billion in open-position notional value.
Scenario three: the right shoulder lifts, with a rebound to 78,878, probability 30%. The trigger is two consecutive 4-hour closes above 78,170.3. If this scenario plays out, the next target is the daily EMA20 at 79,649.3, but it would take another large-bodied candle to reach it.
For the first time, the three probabilities are nearly evenly split. Yesterday’s 40/35/25 still gave scenario one a 5-point lead; today’s 35/35/30 leaves scenarios one and two tied.
The reason is that the evidence is balanced for the first time. Bearish evidence: the high is down 814.7 points, the daily death cross has widened by 377.2 points, and 1-hour momentum has halved. Bullish evidence: the 4-hour MACD has risen for three consecutive readings and turned positive, open interest is down 1.85% from its peak, the Fear and Greed Index has risen from 26 to 34, and a 1,000-point lower wick was recovered.
With evidence on both sides, technicals alone will not determine direction. The election results tonight and the direction of U.S. stocks at the open carry more weight than any of the indicators above.
Trading approach
Intraday. The 1-hour EMA20 is just 71 points above the current price of 77,406, while yesterday’s low is 1,017 points below. There is no structure in between. The 1-hour ATR is 342.8, so two candles of normal movement could erase this entire stretch. At this level, the potential gain is about the same as the cost of trading.
If you want to act, wait for confirmation from either side. A retest of 76,388.9–76,400, followed by a 4-hour close back above 76,659.5, is the lowest-cost confirmation for the bullish thesis. A 4-hour close showing rejection at 77,477–77,501 confirms the bearish thesis. If neither happens, stay out.
Swing trading. The daily ATR is 1,821.8, so a normal daily move could wipe out most of a position. Size positions based on this figure, not on your directional conviction. Two invalidation levels: a daily close below 76,048.9 invalidates the bullish swing structure; two consecutive 4-hour closes above 77,630.6 invalidate the bearish swing structure. Do not add to positions in between.
Risk warning
The U.S. midterms are tonight’s biggest variable. Voting has just begun, and no one knows the outcome. CNN’s view is that Democrats could retake the House, but the lessons of 2016 and 2020 are that polls are not results. Every position held before the election results come in is a bet on an unknown outcome.
The sustainability of the U.S. stock rebound has not been confirmed. This rally in chip stocks was sparked by AMD’s better-than-expected earnings; Nvidia’s return to a $5 trillion valuation is a price rebound, not a change in fundamentals. A one-day rebound does not establish a trend. Technical recoveries after a sharp sell-off often last just one day.
The Binance issue is not resolved. The postmortem on the $630 million incident is out: hackers spent four months infiltrating three computers. He Yi said 57 suspected North Korea-related threats have been stopped this year. Attacks are becoming routine, and the next one may not be stopped. Market makers maintain their order books with rebates; today’s bid side is 4.6 times thicker, but that $730,000 is rented liquidity.
The shelf is only 62.9 points thick. It was tested once yesterday, using up some of the buying power. Open interest is now 98,654 contracts, down 1,860 from the peak but still 3,869 above the 94,785 contracts remaining after the October 30 flush. Those positions still need somewhere to exit.
ETF data is delayed. The latest figures are through November 2, showing a daily net outflow of $399 million, the second consecutive day of outflows. Data after November 3 was unavailable at the time of writing.
These 63 points from 76,388.88 to 76,326: if the level breaks, there is no structural reference below; if it holds, there is another chance. The best move today is to do nothing and wait for the two answers: the election results and the U.S. market open.