At noon today, Binance opened the second batch of withdrawals across nine networks, clearing assets one by one through security checks. When the first batch opened on Sunday, net outflows reached $3.64 billion in just nine and a half hours. By Monday, that figure had fallen to $2.57 billion. Today, Binance said deposits per hour have already surpassed withdrawals. The gates are opening wider, and money is no longer flowing out in just one direction. That’s the most tangible change today.

But don’t take this to mean the matter is behind us. The full zero-knowledge proof for the October 31 snapshot was published yesterday, allowing users to verify that 10 coins are backed at least 1:1. That’s good news, but about 95% of the $6.3 billion stolen has been covered, while roughly 5% in smaller coins is still being gathered. A proof is one thing; trust is another. They need to be considered separately. Binance also specifically warned yesterday about scams impersonating officials and charging fees to expedite withdrawals. At times like this, it’s easiest for people to take advantage of the confusion.

There’s not much to surprise you in the crypto market itself. Bitcoin drifted around $77,000 during the day, down about 2% over 24 hours. Ethereum was around $2,250, down a little over 1%. The weekend rebound didn’t hold, and Bitcoin has been sliding since late September, when it was at $87,000, now heading for its fifth straight weekly loss. The Fear & Greed Index is at 26, down from 37 yesterday, 48 a week ago, and the greed zone a month ago. It’s now just one step away from extreme fear. Sentiment moves faster on the way down than it does on the way up.

ETFs are seeing money flow out, too. On Monday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of about $399 million. BlackRock alone saw $405 million leave—the biggest daily outflow since June. Ether ETFs also saw about $140 million in outflows on Monday, their sixth consecutive day of outflows. For October as a whole, Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $515 million, ending a three-month streak of net inflows. On the other hand, Strategy bought another 811 BTC from October 26 to November 1, at an average price of $80,846. It now holds a total of 849,327 BTC, acquired at an average price of $75,451. At the same table, some are pulling back while others are adding more. Even institutions aren’t of one mind—that’s the clearest picture of where things stand right now.

US stocks closed mixed yesterday. The Dow rose 0.41% to 51,983.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.51% to 7,541.40, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.07% to 25,164.32. Apple and Palantir both beat earnings expectations, but their shares still fell after hours. Apple guided to a 45%–46% gross margin for the holiday quarter, well below September’s 47.9%. Palantir’s revenue jumped 96% to $2.313 billion, and it raised its full-year guidance to $8.53 billion, but growth in new contract value was only about 6%, lagging far behind its revenue growth. Put simply, beating earnings expectations is just the ticket to get in; guidance is the one grading the exam. In early Asian trading, South Korean stocks also showed their displeasure first, falling more than 3% at one point. Today, the whole world is waiting to see what the US does next.

A quick mention of the geopolitical news, too. The US struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on November 2. The US described it as defensive in nature, and oil prices rose only a few tenths of a percent in early Asian trading. Bitcoin barely reacted either. At least that’s how the market is voting today: it sees this as activity in an old conflict, not the start of a new war.

The overall verdict in a nutshell: today isn’t a crash, and it isn’t a turnaround—it’s a grind. The door is opening, money is flowing back in, sentiment is fearful, ETFs are seeing outflows, and investors are picking apart earnings. With all these forces pulling in different directions, prices can only drift in place.

There’s plenty to watch tonight. US stocks open at 22:30, and September JOLTS job openings come out at 23:00. The market expects a little over 7.1 million; the figure will show whether the US labor market is really cooling off. After the close, AMD reports results. Revenue is expected to be around $13.1 billion, with gross margins near 56%. Whether the AI chip story can keep going will depend on what the company says about next quarter. Today is also Election Day for the US midterms, though the results won’t really be reflected in the market until tomorrow. Tomorrow brings Uber before the open, Qualcomm and Arm after the close, plus the ISM Services PMI—a packed schedule.

For tonight, focus on the data and earnings first. Don’t rush to a conclusion.

$BTC $ETH