The bursting of the stock market bubble does not mean that the development or use of artificial intelligence in warfare will stop. In fact, linking the two is a common confusion between "companies’ market value" and "technological and strategic development."
Here is a clear analysis explaining why wars will continue to rely on artificial intelligence despite the stock market crash:
1. The separation between “financial markets” and “military strategy”
· Financial markets are affected by speculation, inflated expectations, and short-term profitability. A stock market crash only means that investors realized company valuations were excessive (a bubble), not that the technology itself had failed.
· Military strategy is not driven by stock prices, but by the “need to survive and prevail.” Countries do not stop developing weapons because a technology company’s stock price has fallen.
2. Government funding is independent of the market
Arms manufacturers and developers of defense technologies (such as Lockheed Martin or technology companies contracted by the Pentagon) rely primarily on national defense budgets, not on fluctuations in the New York Stock Exchange. Defense budgets in the United States, China, and Russia are allocated in advance and are not affected by the bursting of a technology bubble in the civilian sector.
3. Military AI has become a “tangible reality,” not just “promises”
What we are witnessing today on the battlefield (such as in the war in Ukraine) is not just experimentation, but real-world applications of AI:
· Suicide drones: which identify targets and strike them autonomously.
· Command and control systems (C4ISR): to analyze vast amounts of satellite and radar data in seconds and make decisions faster than humans.
· Electronic and cyber warfare: AI algorithms are used to detect cyberattacks and direct counterattacks.
· Logistics: managing military supply chains with high efficiency.
4. How does a bubble bursting benefit militaries?
When a financial bubble in AI bursts, a process of “consolidation” takes place. Fake companies that built their promises on nothing but talk will collapse, while companies with real, competitive technology (including defense companies) will survive and capture the market. This makes military technology more mature and grounded in reality, far removed from media “hype.”
5. The technological arms race does not stop
The great powers (the United States, China, Russia, and Europe) consider AI a “strategic weapon” that could determine who wins future wars. The immediate result of a stock market crash is that governments will recognize the danger of relying entirely on an unstable private sector, and may increase their direct government investment in military AI to ensure their national security.
Conclusion:
A stock market crash means that the “era of inflated expectations” has ended and the “era of real-world applications” has begun. AI was not merely a financial fad, but a coming industrial and military revolution. Wars in the near future will rely more heavily on algorithms and autonomous systems, regardless of what happens in the financial markets.
