$BTC Australia had an interesting decision today.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the cash rate to 4.85%—its fifth hike this year and the highest level in 18 years.
That number looks pretty hawkish on its own, but markets didn't trade it that way at all. The Australian dollar actually fell around 0.3%.
The reason was the vote.
Six of the nine members voted in favor, while three wanted to hold rates steady—the split was crystal clear.
The statement also removed the line about “further increases if necessary.” Markets got the message: this hiking cycle is probably nearing its end, and bets on a hold next month jumped straight up.
Nobody was surprised by the hike itself; nearly all of the 30-plus economists had called it. Expectations were already fully priced in. The real new information was the split vote.
The inflation numbers aren't looking good either.
Core inflation in the third quarter hit an annual rate of 3.7%, higher than the RBA's own forecast of 3.4%. The target range is 2–3%, and the RBA itself admits inflation won't return to the top of that range until the end of 2027.
So this is a case of “having to hike, but not wanting to hike again”—a hawkish move with a dovish undertone, while still leaving room to act.
A quick pivot to crypto.
One central bank in Australia obviously can't drive the direction of $BTC , so don't force the connection.
But the timing right now is pretty delicate: Bitcoin is currently around 76844, with an intraday low near 76542. There's only about forty bucks of room left above the 76500 level; whether it breaks comes down to this next push.
My rules are the same as always: don't chase shorts above 76500; if it breaks, reassess. The next level down is 75000, and there's no talk of a reversal until it reclaims 79280.
The US midterm election results are being counted tonight, and volatility will most likely hit overnight. Don't let a single macro headline throw off your position during the day.
What do you make of a decision like this—“they hiked, but seem ready to stop”? Is it positive for risk assets, or just noise?
Personal analysis, not investment advice
#RBAHikeButSplitVote
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points, taking the cash rate to 4.85%—its fifth hike this year and the highest level in 18 years.
That number looks pretty hawkish on its own, but markets didn't trade it that way at all. The Australian dollar actually fell around 0.3%.
The reason was the vote.
Six of the nine members voted in favor, while three wanted to hold rates steady—the split was crystal clear.
The statement also removed the line about “further increases if necessary.” Markets got the message: this hiking cycle is probably nearing its end, and bets on a hold next month jumped straight up.
Nobody was surprised by the hike itself; nearly all of the 30-plus economists had called it. Expectations were already fully priced in. The real new information was the split vote.
The inflation numbers aren't looking good either.
Core inflation in the third quarter hit an annual rate of 3.7%, higher than the RBA's own forecast of 3.4%. The target range is 2–3%, and the RBA itself admits inflation won't return to the top of that range until the end of 2027.
So this is a case of “having to hike, but not wanting to hike again”—a hawkish move with a dovish undertone, while still leaving room to act.
A quick pivot to crypto.
One central bank in Australia obviously can't drive the direction of $BTC , so don't force the connection.
But the timing right now is pretty delicate: Bitcoin is currently around 76844, with an intraday low near 76542. There's only about forty bucks of room left above the 76500 level; whether it breaks comes down to this next push.
My rules are the same as always: don't chase shorts above 76500; if it breaks, reassess. The next level down is 75000, and there's no talk of a reversal until it reclaims 79280.
The US midterm election results are being counted tonight, and volatility will most likely hit overnight. Don't let a single macro headline throw off your position during the day.
What do you make of a decision like this—“they hiked, but seem ready to stop”? Is it positive for risk assets, or just noise?
Personal analysis, not investment advice
#RBAHikeButSplitVote
