#AAVE has come under selling pressure again. And now the market is approaching a point that could determine the direction of its next move.
After a powerful rebound from $115.00, the price climbed to $141.03, but buyers failed to hold above that level. The recovery stalled, the structure turned bearish, and sellers are gradually regaining control.
Current price: $130.90
🔴 MARKET STRUCTURE — BEARISH
The downtrend structure remains intact on D1 and H4 after the high of $187.88.
Sequence of recent moves:
A sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity around $115.00.
A strong bullish reaction and recovery.
Price delivered to $141.03.
Failure to continue higher.
Formation of Lower Highs and a resumption of the decline.
The bounce has not yet confirmed a change in the HTF trend. We view it as a corrective phase within a broader bearish structure.
🎯 NARRATIVE A → B → C
A — What happened?
The market swept liquidity below $115.00, followed by an upward impulse. However, buyers lost initiative around $141.03.
B — Where is the next Delivery headed?
Sellers remain in control.
Sequential targets:
$130.78 — nearest local SSL.
$125.15 — next downside target.
$115.00 — external liquidity pool.
C — Invalidation
A sustained move back above $141.03, confirmed by bullish structure on H4, would invalidate the current bearish scenario.
📍 KEY LEVELS & POI
Resistance zones:
$132.50–$133.25
$134.64–$137.10
$139.00–$141.03
Support zones:
$130.78
$125.15
$115.00
Main POI: $132.50–$134.80
We expect a possible correction and a reaction from sellers here.
Important: POI is an area to watch, not a ready-made entry point.
🔻 MAIN SCENARIO — SHORT
The primary scenario is continued bearish Delivery.
What we expect:
Price returns to the $132.50–$134.80 POI.
A sweep of local Buy-Side Liquidity.
Bearish MSS on M5.
Downward displacement.
FVG/IFVG Retest.
We consider a SHORT only after the full sequence is complete.
Potential TPs:
TP1 — $130.78
TP2 — $125.15
TP3 — $115.00
Entry and SL are determined by the actual M5 structure. It is premature to set them before confirmation appears.
🟢 PLAN B — LONG
If the market sweeps SSL around $130.78 and forms a strong bullish reaction, an alternative scenario becomes possible.
Conditions:
Liquidity Sweep.
Bullish MSS on M5.
Upward displacement.
FVG/IFVG Retest.
Potential recovery targets:
$132.50–$133.25
$134.64–$137.10
$141.03
Without confirmation, this scenario remains a hypothesis.
⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT
Don't chase price after an impulsive move.
We don't open a SHORT right near $130.78, when the market is already approaching local liquidity.
We don't buy just because the price looks oversold.
Current status: WAIT.
First comes the Liquidity Sweep, then MSS, Displacement, and Retest. Only after that is there a basis for considering a trade.
🔥 THE MAIN QUESTION
Will AAVE hold $130.78, or will sellers push the price down to $125.15 and retest $115.00?
My Bias is BEARISH, but there is no confirmed Entry yet.
We watch the price reaction rather than trying to predict it.
👇 Which scenario do you think is more likely: continued decline or a bullish reversal after a liquidity sweep?
#AAVE #AAVEUSDT #CryptoTrading #BinanceSquare #TradingPlan #PriceAction
