In the first 10 hours after withdrawals resumed, Binance saw net outflows of $3.64 billion. BTC bounced over the weekend, and people in the group said the event was behind us and the money was back.
I’m not so sure.
If market makers’ funds have also been pulled, the order book gets thinner—a sell order of the same size can have a completely different impact on market depth. When FTX collapsed in 2022, the market had to absorb more than just the exchange’s own problems; it also had to deal with the knock-on effects of liquidity being pulled all at once. The situations aren’t the same, but we’ve seen order books thin out like this before.
The withdrawal figures are still changing. For now, I’m treating the market action over the past two days as a recovery. If withdrawals stabilize, order-book depth returns, and ETF flows turn positive again, I’ll revise my view.
I’m not so sure.
If market makers’ funds have also been pulled, the order book gets thinner—a sell order of the same size can have a completely different impact on market depth. When FTX collapsed in 2022, the market had to absorb more than just the exchange’s own problems; it also had to deal with the knock-on effects of liquidity being pulled all at once. The situations aren’t the same, but we’ve seen order books thin out like this before.
The withdrawal figures are still changing. For now, I’m treating the market action over the past two days as a recovery. If withdrawals stabilize, order-book depth returns, and ETF flows turn positive again, I’ll revise my view.