The CNN Fear & Greed Index fell from 35 to 26, remaining in the fear zone; the VIX Fear Index rose from 17.20 to 19.42, rebounding 12.91% in a single day; and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed at 30 for a second consecutive day, stuck in the fear zone. The S&P 500 fell 1.82% to 7,580.07, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.46% to 28,384.85. Bitcoin was around $77,435, up about 0.5% from yesterday’s snapshot, but down more than 8% cumulatively since October.
All three indicators are stuck in the fear zone: the CNN Fear & Greed Index plunged 9 points in a day, leaving it just 2 points above the extreme fear threshold, while the VIX Fear Index surged intraday to 23.93, surpassing its intraday high of 22.31 on October 16, before closing at 19.42. Fear in crypto, however, did not deepen further—the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained unchanged at 30, suggesting that the panic sparked by the Binance security incident has already been priced in, and that what remains is likely fear driven by U.S. stocks.
The divergence is in the details: the CNN Fear & Greed Index plunged 9 points in a day, nearing the extreme fear threshold, while the VIX Fear Index rose only to 19.42, not even breaking 20. Slow-moving indicators within the stock market, such as breadth and momentum, are more pessimistic than options pricing; the options market is buying insurance, not fleeing for the exits. Bitcoin is holding near $77,000 instead of falling in step. The 200-day moving average is around $76,400–$76,600. If that level holds, it could mark an emotional bottom; if it fails, another test may be in store.
Next Monday, watch two things: whether Apple’s earnings can stabilize the valuation narrative for tech stocks, and whether the market dares to place bets ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Sentiment has already fallen deep into the fear zone. At levels like these, a one-day rebound is more likely, but so is one final drop. Hold off on both shorting and buying the dip for now; wait until the Crypto Fear & Greed Index gets back above 30 and the VIX Fear Index retreats to around 17.
#情绪日报 #U.S. stocks
All three indicators are stuck in the fear zone: the CNN Fear & Greed Index plunged 9 points in a day, leaving it just 2 points above the extreme fear threshold, while the VIX Fear Index surged intraday to 23.93, surpassing its intraday high of 22.31 on October 16, before closing at 19.42. Fear in crypto, however, did not deepen further—the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained unchanged at 30, suggesting that the panic sparked by the Binance security incident has already been priced in, and that what remains is likely fear driven by U.S. stocks.
The divergence is in the details: the CNN Fear & Greed Index plunged 9 points in a day, nearing the extreme fear threshold, while the VIX Fear Index rose only to 19.42, not even breaking 20. Slow-moving indicators within the stock market, such as breadth and momentum, are more pessimistic than options pricing; the options market is buying insurance, not fleeing for the exits. Bitcoin is holding near $77,000 instead of falling in step. The 200-day moving average is around $76,400–$76,600. If that level holds, it could mark an emotional bottom; if it fails, another test may be in store.
Next Monday, watch two things: whether Apple’s earnings can stabilize the valuation narrative for tech stocks, and whether the market dares to place bets ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Sentiment has already fallen deep into the fear zone. At levels like these, a one-day rebound is more likely, but so is one final drop. Hold off on both shorting and buying the dip for now; wait until the Crypto Fear & Greed Index gets back above 30 and the VIX Fear Index retreats to around 17.
#情绪日报 #U.S. stocks
