$PARTI The previous post said that if 0.0546 broke again, the entire lower end of this candle would be given back. This candle didn’t just break it—it plunged all the way to 0.0490, 10.3% below that line. It closed at 0.0496 USDT, just 1.2% above the candle’s low. Four-hour change: -11.11%. Both the high and low shifted from 0.0608 / 0.0546 to 0.0586 / 0.0490—the whole range moved down, not just a brief dip.
What matters more to me is that this time, the 24-hour figure doesn’t need to be discounted. In previous posts, I kept saying that most of the change on paper came from the rising baseline. This candle’s baseline only moved from about 0.0392 to 0.0390, barely changing. So the on-paper gain fell from over 40% to +27.18%; that drop corresponds to the price’s own 12.1% decline. At this point, for the first time, the on-paper figure and the price are telling the same story.
Volume didn’t follow: 24-hour trading volume was about 43.06 million USDT, only 4.6% higher than the 41.16 million at the time of the previous post. The price fell 12%, while volume stayed on the same line.
The cost side hasn’t picked a direction either. The funding rate was -0.00466%, hugging the zero line just like the +0.0019% reading at 12:00. Both settlements were within 0.005 percentage points of zero.
To say the downtrend has been contained, price first needs to reclaim 0.0546 and hold above it. If 0.0490 breaks again, the only lower reference point in this tracking series is the 0.0371 low where the rally began. There’s a counterpoint too: the close rebounded from 0.0490, and the 24-hour figure is still +27.18%. A shape like this can reverse again in a single four-hour candle.
#MarketAnalysis
What matters more to me is that this time, the 24-hour figure doesn’t need to be discounted. In previous posts, I kept saying that most of the change on paper came from the rising baseline. This candle’s baseline only moved from about 0.0392 to 0.0390, barely changing. So the on-paper gain fell from over 40% to +27.18%; that drop corresponds to the price’s own 12.1% decline. At this point, for the first time, the on-paper figure and the price are telling the same story.
Volume didn’t follow: 24-hour trading volume was about 43.06 million USDT, only 4.6% higher than the 41.16 million at the time of the previous post. The price fell 12%, while volume stayed on the same line.
The cost side hasn’t picked a direction either. The funding rate was -0.00466%, hugging the zero line just like the +0.0019% reading at 12:00. Both settlements were within 0.005 percentage points of zero.
To say the downtrend has been contained, price first needs to reclaim 0.0546 and hold above it. If 0.0490 breaks again, the only lower reference point in this tracking series is the 0.0371 low where the rally began. There’s a counterpoint too: the close rebounded from 0.0490, and the 24-hour figure is still +27.18%. A shape like this can reverse again in a single four-hour candle.
#MarketAnalysis
