#fomc会议
All 4 million Bitcoin are trapped above $85,000 🦖
These holders’ cost basis ranges from $85,000 all the way up to $118,000, representing $326 billion at current prices
📈 进群看今日思路
Bitcoin is now at $81,400, while the $85,000 level has only been reclaimed for 5 days this year—and each time, the price has been pushed back down
Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. Most of these 4 million coins were bought in 2025.
Its conclusion is straightforward: more than half the coins held by long-term holders were bought at prices above the current price
The $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back down 4 times this year. The last time it broke above was in September, when it reached a high of just $87,100 ⚠️
It’s not just Bitcoin hoarders—US spot ETF holders are also right around breakeven
Glassnode puts the average ETF cost basis at $81,500, while Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates it at slightly below $82,000
According to Seyffart’s chart, as of this Monday, ETF holders were sitting on average unrealized losses of about $2.63 billion
He added that this figure tracks fund flows only and doesn’t represent the actual cost basis of buyers in the secondary market
There’s another factor holding back the rebound: on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to stand pat, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4.00%
The vote was 10–2, with Cook and Hammack voting for a rate hike. Before the meeting, markets put the odds of a December hike at over 70%
The 10-year Treasury yield was close to 5% around midday Thursday, after closing at 5.05% on Wednesday. It had briefly reached 5.37% on October 7
HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun said that a December rate hike has already been partially priced in. What’s really weighing on Bitcoin is persistently high long-term Treasury yields and real interest rates, which have made the opportunity cost of holding risk assets too high 💥
Money flows speak before prices do
Galaxy Research found that 9 hedge funds and banks cut their spot ETF exposure by the equivalent of 68,000 Bitcoin because the cash-and-carry trade—long spot and short futures—was no longer profitable
At the same time, wealth management platforms and sovereign wealth funds have been slowly adding to their positions
From Monday through Wednesday this week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $424 million, compared with a single-day outflow of $635 million on October 22
Selling pressure is easing—and that matters more than the price
At the August low, realized losses for the day exceeded profits by about $630 million
During the October 24 pullback, the largest daily net loss was only about $27 million—more than 20 times smaller
My view: $85,000 isn’t a technical resistance level; it’s the psychological breakeven point for 4 million coins
The real ceiling isn’t $85,000 either—it’s the 10-year Treasury yield, hovering near 5% 📉
As long as risk-free returns stay this high, every rebound toward $85,000 will run into selling from holders looking to break even
But on the other hand, losses are shrinking fast, which means fewer people are willing to capitulate. If the price falls, there may not be many coins left to dump
So the question this time isn’t whether Bitcoin can rise, but whether it can break through $85,000 and hold above it
Tell me in the comments: do you think it’ll break through this time, or get pushed back down again?
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll help you follow Bitcoin and Federal Reserve news—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
All 4 million Bitcoin are trapped above $85,000 🦖
These holders’ cost basis ranges from $85,000 all the way up to $118,000, representing $326 billion at current prices
📈 进群看今日思路
Bitcoin is now at $81,400, while the $85,000 level has only been reclaimed for 5 days this year—and each time, the price has been pushed back down
Glassnode defines long-term holders as addresses that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days. Most of these 4 million coins were bought in 2025.
Its conclusion is straightforward: more than half the coins held by long-term holders were bought at prices above the current price
The $84,000–$85,000 range has pushed Bitcoin back down 4 times this year. The last time it broke above was in September, when it reached a high of just $87,100 ⚠️
It’s not just Bitcoin hoarders—US spot ETF holders are also right around breakeven
Glassnode puts the average ETF cost basis at $81,500, while Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart estimates it at slightly below $82,000
According to Seyffart’s chart, as of this Monday, ETF holders were sitting on average unrealized losses of about $2.63 billion
He added that this figure tracks fund flows only and doesn’t represent the actual cost basis of buyers in the secondary market
There’s another factor holding back the rebound: on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided to stand pat, keeping rates at 3.75% to 4.00%
The vote was 10–2, with Cook and Hammack voting for a rate hike. Before the meeting, markets put the odds of a December hike at over 70%
The 10-year Treasury yield was close to 5% around midday Thursday, after closing at 5.05% on Wednesday. It had briefly reached 5.37% on October 7
HashKey senior researcher Tim Sun said that a December rate hike has already been partially priced in. What’s really weighing on Bitcoin is persistently high long-term Treasury yields and real interest rates, which have made the opportunity cost of holding risk assets too high 💥
Money flows speak before prices do
Galaxy Research found that 9 hedge funds and banks cut their spot ETF exposure by the equivalent of 68,000 Bitcoin because the cash-and-carry trade—long spot and short futures—was no longer profitable
At the same time, wealth management platforms and sovereign wealth funds have been slowly adding to their positions
From Monday through Wednesday this week, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $424 million, compared with a single-day outflow of $635 million on October 22
Selling pressure is easing—and that matters more than the price
At the August low, realized losses for the day exceeded profits by about $630 million
During the October 24 pullback, the largest daily net loss was only about $27 million—more than 20 times smaller
My view: $85,000 isn’t a technical resistance level; it’s the psychological breakeven point for 4 million coins
The real ceiling isn’t $85,000 either—it’s the 10-year Treasury yield, hovering near 5% 📉
As long as risk-free returns stay this high, every rebound toward $85,000 will run into selling from holders looking to break even
But on the other hand, losses are shrinking fast, which means fewer people are willing to capitulate. If the price falls, there may not be many coins left to dump
So the question this time isn’t whether Bitcoin can rise, but whether it can break through $85,000 and hold above it
Tell me in the comments: do you think it’ll break through this time, or get pushed back down again?
Tap the profile picture to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll help you follow Bitcoin and Federal Reserve news—not just what’s happening, but also the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
