After the U.S. market closes on October 29, a U.S.-compliant trading platform associated with COIN will report its third-quarter results. A peer reportedly just disclosed a 55% year-over-year decline in crypto trading revenue. We’ll find out tonight whether that downturn shows up in COIN’s results.
My view is that you can’t use one revenue line from a peer to directly estimate COIN’s performance. This time, it’s more important to see whether trading revenue and other businesses can support each other. The 55% figure is not a number COIN has reported; it was also reported that the platform has made RLUSD available to retail and institutional clients, but launching a product doesn’t mean the revenue has already materialized this quarter.
Once the results are out, check trading revenue and volume, then look at subscription and services revenue, costs, and guidance. If trading is weak, can other businesses fill the gap? If trading revenue remains steady, has the market overestimated the spillover from the peer’s results?
My view is that you can’t use one revenue line from a peer to directly estimate COIN’s performance. This time, it’s more important to see whether trading revenue and other businesses can support each other. The 55% figure is not a number COIN has reported; it was also reported that the platform has made RLUSD available to retail and institutional clients, but launching a product doesn’t mean the revenue has already materialized this quarter.
Once the results are out, check trading revenue and volume, then look at subscription and services revenue, costs, and guidance. If trading is weak, can other businesses fill the gap? If trading revenue remains steady, has the market overestimated the spillover from the peer’s results?