Only a reclaim and close above 82,000 would make me lean bullish; a daily close below 79,200 would turn me bearish (4/5)
When I say the daily close, I mean the candle that closes at 8 a.m. Beijing time each day. The Fed announces its decision at 2 a.m. Thursday, and Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30. The first daily close after the decision will be at 8 a.m. Thursday.
The upper level is 82,000. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are both clustered there, so if the price gets above it, it will have cleared both at once.
It only counts if the daily candle closes back above 82,000. An intraday touch doesn’t count. At that point, I’ll shift to neutral-to-bullish.
I only count the close because intraday spikes can be so deceptive. The move early this morning looked a lot like a breakout, but the price dropped back within an hour.
The lower level is 79,200. All three tests of the lows landed just above it, with each low higher than the last. If this level breaks, the bids supporting the price below will have pulled out.
If the daily candle closes below 79,200, the floor that held through those three tests will have given way, and I’ll turn bearish.
There’s little doubt that rates will stay unchanged this time; the market is betting on December. I expect Warsh to take a hawkish stance, and he has no reason to soften his position right now. So of the two levels, I think the lower one is more likely to be tested first.
The range between the two levels is less than $3,000, and before the decision, the price has been churning back and forth within it.
$BTC
These are just my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
When I say the daily close, I mean the candle that closes at 8 a.m. Beijing time each day. The Fed announces its decision at 2 a.m. Thursday, and Warsh holds a press conference at 2:30. The first daily close after the decision will be at 8 a.m. Thursday.
The upper level is 82,000. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are both clustered there, so if the price gets above it, it will have cleared both at once.
It only counts if the daily candle closes back above 82,000. An intraday touch doesn’t count. At that point, I’ll shift to neutral-to-bullish.
I only count the close because intraday spikes can be so deceptive. The move early this morning looked a lot like a breakout, but the price dropped back within an hour.
The lower level is 79,200. All three tests of the lows landed just above it, with each low higher than the last. If this level breaks, the bids supporting the price below will have pulled out.
If the daily candle closes below 79,200, the floor that held through those three tests will have given way, and I’ll turn bearish.
There’s little doubt that rates will stay unchanged this time; the market is betting on December. I expect Warsh to take a hawkish stance, and he has no reason to soften his position right now. So of the two levels, I think the lower one is more likely to be tested first.
The range between the two levels is less than $3,000, and before the decision, the price has been churning back and forth within it.
$BTC
These are just my personal views and do not constitute investment advice.
