At $ORDER 16, that hourly candle surged from 0.040 to 0.0585, a range of nearly 48% in one hour, with more than $30 million in trading volume in a single candle. As the price shot straight up, the proportion of long accounts on Binance Perpetuals actually fell from 73% to 61.5%. Bulls are watching the price; bears are watching account numbers—and the two sides are reading completely different stories.
The 24-hour gain is about 59%, with a low of 0.031, an intraday high of 0.0585, and the current price still hovering around 0.049. Futures trading volume is about $37 million. The 15:00 hourly candle first lifted the price from 0.035 to 0.040, with aggressive buying already outweighing selling. Then the 16:00 candle left both the Bollinger Band and Keltner Channel upper bands—at 0.042—far behind. The truly striking move was in open interest: it was still at 32.05 million coins at 15:00, but had reached 65.26 million by 16:35—more than doubling in 40 minutes, to around 16% of the circulating supply. Large traders’ long positions stayed around 55%, barely moving. Accounts were reducing longs and adding shorts, while large traders’ positions didn’t follow suit and chase longs. That suggests a considerable share of the new positions were opened to bet on a decline.
This wasn’t a rally driven by a wave of bulls piling into long positions. Most of the positions that flooded in during the sharp surge were shorts, and they were what pushed open interest to more than double. Those who opened shorts at higher prices would later be forced to buy back—that’s the fuel behind this upswing. The mark price is still about 1.9% below the index, and the next funding rate is pointing to -0.16%, so positioning in the futures market remains bearish. Technically, the 1-hour RSI has reached 90.9, the price is about 17% above the upper band, the KDJ J-value is around 80, and EMA12 is still near 0.037. The short-term market is undeniably overheated, but the shorts haven’t been fully flushed out yet.
I wouldn’t chase the price here. Above 0.045, as long as open interest doesn’t fall back below 40 million, shorts are still providing fuel for a rebound. If the 1-hour candle closes back below 0.042 and open interest drops noticeably, this short squeeze will likely be over.
#ORDER #合约持仓 #Funding Rate
The 24-hour gain is about 59%, with a low of 0.031, an intraday high of 0.0585, and the current price still hovering around 0.049. Futures trading volume is about $37 million. The 15:00 hourly candle first lifted the price from 0.035 to 0.040, with aggressive buying already outweighing selling. Then the 16:00 candle left both the Bollinger Band and Keltner Channel upper bands—at 0.042—far behind. The truly striking move was in open interest: it was still at 32.05 million coins at 15:00, but had reached 65.26 million by 16:35—more than doubling in 40 minutes, to around 16% of the circulating supply. Large traders’ long positions stayed around 55%, barely moving. Accounts were reducing longs and adding shorts, while large traders’ positions didn’t follow suit and chase longs. That suggests a considerable share of the new positions were opened to bet on a decline.
This wasn’t a rally driven by a wave of bulls piling into long positions. Most of the positions that flooded in during the sharp surge were shorts, and they were what pushed open interest to more than double. Those who opened shorts at higher prices would later be forced to buy back—that’s the fuel behind this upswing. The mark price is still about 1.9% below the index, and the next funding rate is pointing to -0.16%, so positioning in the futures market remains bearish. Technically, the 1-hour RSI has reached 90.9, the price is about 17% above the upper band, the KDJ J-value is around 80, and EMA12 is still near 0.037. The short-term market is undeniably overheated, but the shorts haven’t been fully flushed out yet.
I wouldn’t chase the price here. Above 0.045, as long as open interest doesn’t fall back below 40 million, shorts are still providing fuel for a rebound. If the 1-hour candle closes back below 0.042 and open interest drops noticeably, this short squeeze will likely be over.
#ORDER #合约持仓 #Funding Rate