$AKE The unlocking candle on that day wiped out all the gains since October 15 in one go. It is now at 0.024, back to where it was before that pump.
First, why it moved. October 21 was AKE’s monthly unlock. According to the unlock tracking site, about 2.1 billion tokens were unlocked, worth about 9% of market cap at the time. The previous two records were not pretty: after the August 21 unlock, it fell more than 20% within a week; after the September 21 unlock, it fell more than 40% over the next few days. So this time, the fact that it was rising in the week before the unlock was itself a bit unusual.
I look at the tape in three parts (Gate perpetuals):
1. Pushed to the top before unlock. Yesterday, from 16:00 to 18:00, there were three straight hours of increased volume, with each hour trading 550k to 840k U. It hit a high of 0.03768, almost exactly the same level as the October 15 high of 0.03753, a double top. During this phase, open interest rose from about 23.9 million U to 26.5 million U, mostly likely longs chasing the move.
2. One candle smashed through at 19:00. That hour traded about 2.51 million U; normally it’s only 200k to 300k U per hour. Price was cut directly from 0.0362 to 0.0281, then spiked to 0.0261 at 20:00. The key is open interest: over those two hours it dropped from about 26.13 million U to 18.93 million U, a decline of more than 7 million U. Yet total long liquidations were only a bit over 50k U. In other words, this was not a chain-reaction liquidation; the people holding positions were getting out themselves, and doing so very aggressively.
3. After that, a slow bleed on low volume. From 22:00 to now, each hour only saw about 190k to 480k U of volume. Price ground down from 0.027 to 0.024, while open interest stayed between 18.3 million U and 19.3 million U and did not drop further.
What matters most to me is this combination: price falling, open interest not falling, and volume small. Then look at who is inside: the account long/short ratio rose from 0.89 before the dump to a high of 1.50 overnight, now 1.14; the whale position long/short ratio has stayed between 0.92 and 0.96. Retail is buying the dip as price falls, while whales are leaning short. That structure usually is not a bottom.
In terms of positioning, 0.0224 to 0.0232 was the low on October 12 and 13, which is also the starting point of the October 15 pump. Right now, price is only a little over 3% away from 0.0232.
My view: I’m not buying. 0.0224 is the lowest point in the past 20 days. If it breaks below that on volume and open interest rises at the same time, that means newly opened shorts are driving it down. Below that, there is no meaningful volume cluster to reference, so I won’t try to guess a target.
The invalidation level is a reclaim above 0.0277 on the hourly chart, meaning the platform where it consolidated for a few hours after the dump, with open interest increasing and the account long/short ratio moving lower. That would mean the unlock selling pressure has been absorbed. I would admit I’m wrong, and first look for 0.0288 above, which is the closing price of the 19:00 candle.
Looking back at my $NEAR from yesterday. I said 5.39 to 5.44 was old resistance and to treat it as the upper bound first. In the end, at 23:00 there was about 11.7 million U trading as it pushed to 5.404, open interest jumped by more than 50 million U, at 00:00 it spiked to 5.452, a bit above 5.44, and closed at 5.31; by 03:00, those newly added positions had unwound by more than 30 million U, and it is now around 5.27. The upper-bound call was correct, but I did not expect such a large increase in positions, and the wick did indeed go through 5.44. Next time, when giving a range, I need to leave room for wicks.
This is only a market observation and does not constitute advice.
First, why it moved. October 21 was AKE’s monthly unlock. According to the unlock tracking site, about 2.1 billion tokens were unlocked, worth about 9% of market cap at the time. The previous two records were not pretty: after the August 21 unlock, it fell more than 20% within a week; after the September 21 unlock, it fell more than 40% over the next few days. So this time, the fact that it was rising in the week before the unlock was itself a bit unusual.
I look at the tape in three parts (Gate perpetuals):
1. Pushed to the top before unlock. Yesterday, from 16:00 to 18:00, there were three straight hours of increased volume, with each hour trading 550k to 840k U. It hit a high of 0.03768, almost exactly the same level as the October 15 high of 0.03753, a double top. During this phase, open interest rose from about 23.9 million U to 26.5 million U, mostly likely longs chasing the move.
2. One candle smashed through at 19:00. That hour traded about 2.51 million U; normally it’s only 200k to 300k U per hour. Price was cut directly from 0.0362 to 0.0281, then spiked to 0.0261 at 20:00. The key is open interest: over those two hours it dropped from about 26.13 million U to 18.93 million U, a decline of more than 7 million U. Yet total long liquidations were only a bit over 50k U. In other words, this was not a chain-reaction liquidation; the people holding positions were getting out themselves, and doing so very aggressively.
3. After that, a slow bleed on low volume. From 22:00 to now, each hour only saw about 190k to 480k U of volume. Price ground down from 0.027 to 0.024, while open interest stayed between 18.3 million U and 19.3 million U and did not drop further.
What matters most to me is this combination: price falling, open interest not falling, and volume small. Then look at who is inside: the account long/short ratio rose from 0.89 before the dump to a high of 1.50 overnight, now 1.14; the whale position long/short ratio has stayed between 0.92 and 0.96. Retail is buying the dip as price falls, while whales are leaning short. That structure usually is not a bottom.
In terms of positioning, 0.0224 to 0.0232 was the low on October 12 and 13, which is also the starting point of the October 15 pump. Right now, price is only a little over 3% away from 0.0232.
My view: I’m not buying. 0.0224 is the lowest point in the past 20 days. If it breaks below that on volume and open interest rises at the same time, that means newly opened shorts are driving it down. Below that, there is no meaningful volume cluster to reference, so I won’t try to guess a target.
The invalidation level is a reclaim above 0.0277 on the hourly chart, meaning the platform where it consolidated for a few hours after the dump, with open interest increasing and the account long/short ratio moving lower. That would mean the unlock selling pressure has been absorbed. I would admit I’m wrong, and first look for 0.0288 above, which is the closing price of the 19:00 candle.
Looking back at my $NEAR from yesterday. I said 5.39 to 5.44 was old resistance and to treat it as the upper bound first. In the end, at 23:00 there was about 11.7 million U trading as it pushed to 5.404, open interest jumped by more than 50 million U, at 00:00 it spiked to 5.452, a bit above 5.44, and closed at 5.31; by 03:00, those newly added positions had unwound by more than 30 million U, and it is now around 5.27. The upper-bound call was correct, but I did not expect such a large increase in positions, and the wick did indeed go through 5.44. Next time, when giving a range, I need to leave room for wicks.
This is only a market observation and does not constitute advice.