📊 October 21 Market Analysis | Shorts got squeezed, but ETH is still bleeding
BTC is at 83,032, up 1.17% over 24h; ETH is at 2,453, up 1.89%. Sentiment is recovering ahead of the FOMC, but structural divergence in fund flows remains severe.
Flows: BTC ETFs have stopped bleeding, while ETH continues to be abandoned. BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million in a single day, the highest in nearly a month. BlackRock’s IBIT alone brought in $665.2 million, temporarily ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. But ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $103.3 million on the same day, extending their outflow streak to three weeks. BlackRock’s ETHA saw $95.4 million in outflows. Institutions are rotating from ETH into BTC; the structural abandonment of ETH hasn’t changed.
Leverage: Shorts got squeezed. Total liquidations across the market reached $279 million over 24h, including $194 million in short positions (69.5%) and just $84.72 million in long positions. ETH shorts accounted for $64.3 million in liquidations, and BTC shorts for $48.83 million. Bears betting on a decline took heavy losses in this rally. Excessive leverage was largely flushed out in early October, reducing the risk of a cascading liquidation event.
Macro: The FOMC is this week’s key variable. All 94 economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain unchanged in October, while all 100 economists surveyed expect another rate hike in December, with expectations for the terminal rate converging toward 4%–4.25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, while Brent crude is hovering around $110. Liquidity won’t tighten further in the near term, but it won’t ease either.
Key levels:
BTC: 83,500–84,000 is short-term resistance; a breakout is needed to signal a trend reversal. 82,500 is short-term support; if it fails, watch 80,700.
ETH: 2,480 (the 50-day EMA) is medium-term resistance; failing to reclaim it would mean this is just a weak rebound. 2,360 (the 100-day EMA) is strong support; if it breaks, watch 2,315.
In a nutshell: BTC ETF inflows are providing support, and shorts got squeezed, but ETH is seeing real withdrawals. The structural divergence in fund flows hasn’t changed. Don’t chase longs; wait for BTC to hold above 83,500 or ETH to reclaim 2,480 before considering a small long position. Keep position sizes under control ahead of the FOMC.
BTC is at 83,032, up 1.17% over 24h; ETH is at 2,453, up 1.89%. Sentiment is recovering ahead of the FOMC, but structural divergence in fund flows remains severe.
Flows: BTC ETFs have stopped bleeding, while ETH continues to be abandoned. BTC spot ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million in a single day, the highest in nearly a month. BlackRock’s IBIT alone brought in $665.2 million, temporarily ending two consecutive weeks of outflows. But ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $103.3 million on the same day, extending their outflow streak to three weeks. BlackRock’s ETHA saw $95.4 million in outflows. Institutions are rotating from ETH into BTC; the structural abandonment of ETH hasn’t changed.
Leverage: Shorts got squeezed. Total liquidations across the market reached $279 million over 24h, including $194 million in short positions (69.5%) and just $84.72 million in long positions. ETH shorts accounted for $64.3 million in liquidations, and BTC shorts for $48.83 million. Bears betting on a decline took heavy losses in this rally. Excessive leverage was largely flushed out in early October, reducing the risk of a cascading liquidation event.
Macro: The FOMC is this week’s key variable. All 94 economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain unchanged in October, while all 100 economists surveyed expect another rate hike in December, with expectations for the terminal rate converging toward 4%–4.25%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5%, while Brent crude is hovering around $110. Liquidity won’t tighten further in the near term, but it won’t ease either.
Key levels:
BTC: 83,500–84,000 is short-term resistance; a breakout is needed to signal a trend reversal. 82,500 is short-term support; if it fails, watch 80,700.
ETH: 2,480 (the 50-day EMA) is medium-term resistance; failing to reclaim it would mean this is just a weak rebound. 2,360 (the 100-day EMA) is strong support; if it breaks, watch 2,315.
In a nutshell: BTC ETF inflows are providing support, and shorts got squeezed, but ETH is seeing real withdrawals. The structural divergence in fund flows hasn’t changed. Don’t chase longs; wait for BTC to hold above 83,500 or ETH to reclaim 2,480 before considering a small long position. Keep position sizes under control ahead of the FOMC.