Probability assessment and breakdown of the core rationale for reaching these targets before 2030:

1. $BTC (150K - 220K)
Probability of reaching the target: High (approximately 75% - 85%)
Core rationale:
Institutionalization and reserve-asset adoption: Continued inflows into spot ETFs, corporate treasury adoption of the MicroStrategy model, and allocations by some sovereign wealth funds.
Cycle model: Bitcoin will undergo its next halving in 2028. Based on a model of diminishing returns at each cycle peak, a market capitalization of $3 trillion to $4.5 trillion is a standard expectation amid the expansion of macro capital pools.

2. $ETH (5,000 - 7,000)
Probability of reaching the target: High (approximately 70% - 80%)
Core rationale:
L2 economics and deflation: The preferred choice as a settlement layer for public blockchains and for RWA.
Reasonable market capitalization: Compared with the previous cycle's ATH of around 4,800, this requires growth of only about 45% from the historical high, making it quite achievable before 2030.

3. $SOL (400 - 500)
Probability of reaching the target: Medium-high (approximately 60% - 70%)
Core rationale:
High-frequency applications and consumer-facing dominance: Solana has demonstrated significant performance advantages and ecosystem stickiness in PayFi, DePIN, and high-frequency trading.
Valuation estimate: The overall market-cap ceiling for Layer 1s has risen. A price of 400 - 500 (a market capitalization of around $200 billion) represents a reasonable ecosystem valuation.

So, would you invest?