Would you still chase SNDK at $1,390?
Analysts are calling for a $2,173 price target, and earnings are due on October 29. Yet the stock plunged by half from 2,354 to 1,299—only to suddenly rebound above 1,400 today, up 7%. Is this a golden buying opportunity, or a final bull trap set by institutions before earnings?
First, the surface picture: after a week of declines, a violent rebound today.
Last week, semiconductor stocks crashed across the board. SNDK plunged from its September high to 1,299, breaking below its rising trendline. Technically, it was all “lower highs and lower lows.” But today, it surged right from the open to 1,400–1,405 on higher volume, as buyers stepped in to capitalize on an oversold bounce. The 24-hour perpetual contract moved in tandem with the underlying stock, but with bigger swings. The RSI has rebounded from oversold territory. 1,350–1,370 was support at today’s low, while 1,420–1,450 is the first hurdle for the rebound. This is a short-term oversold bounce, but the medium-term correction structure is still intact.
First question: Is the AI memory supercycle real?
SNDK’s fundamentals are exceptionally strong: FY2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year; net income of $11.43 billion; and EPS of $73–78. Its data-center SSD business once reported growth of 437%, with gross margins high enough to give it pricing power. Tight NAND supply is supporting high prices. The company has also partnered with Meta on storage for VR glasses. Analysts are overwhelmingly rating it Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus price target of $2,173 and a high of $3,600.
China’s CXMT has developed a 4F² DRAM structure, raising concerns that Chinese supply could eventually put pressure on pricing. Semiconductor stocks fell for a full week last week, dragging memory stocks down across the board. Debt concerns at CoreWeave also weighed on AI stocks. Strong fundamentals don’t necessarily mean a strong stock price—if the valuation looks cheap, it may be because the market is already pricing in the possibility that “things won’t be as good in the future.”
Second question: Will the October 29 earnings report be a reality check or a money printer?
Expected EPS is around 46, with revenue of $10.6–$10.85 billion. The market has already priced in a move of ±10%.
Historically, SNDK often beats earnings expectations.
Anyone going all-in before earnings isn’t investing—they’re buying a lottery ticket.
Third question: A technical contradiction has emerged that demands caution
The good: Today’s rebound came on higher volume, and the stock held above 1,400, an attempt to confirm a short-term bottom. Support levels are 1,350–1,370, 1,290–1,300, and 1,250–1,280.
The bad: The price is still below some moving averages, and the medium-term correction structure remains intact. 1,420–1,450 is the first resistance zone for the rebound, 1,500 is the second, and 1,600–1,650 is a moving-average resistance zone.
Today’s rebound is an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal.
For a reversal to be confirmed, the stock must move above 1,450 on higher volume and hold there.
Analysts are calling for a $2,173 price target, and earnings are due on October 29. Yet the stock plunged by half from 2,354 to 1,299—only to suddenly rebound above 1,400 today, up 7%. Is this a golden buying opportunity, or a final bull trap set by institutions before earnings?
First, the surface picture: after a week of declines, a violent rebound today.
Last week, semiconductor stocks crashed across the board. SNDK plunged from its September high to 1,299, breaking below its rising trendline. Technically, it was all “lower highs and lower lows.” But today, it surged right from the open to 1,400–1,405 on higher volume, as buyers stepped in to capitalize on an oversold bounce. The 24-hour perpetual contract moved in tandem with the underlying stock, but with bigger swings. The RSI has rebounded from oversold territory. 1,350–1,370 was support at today’s low, while 1,420–1,450 is the first hurdle for the rebound. This is a short-term oversold bounce, but the medium-term correction structure is still intact.
First question: Is the AI memory supercycle real?
SNDK’s fundamentals are exceptionally strong: FY2026 revenue of $20.25 billion, up 175% year over year; net income of $11.43 billion; and EPS of $73–78. Its data-center SSD business once reported growth of 437%, with gross margins high enough to give it pricing power. Tight NAND supply is supporting high prices. The company has also partnered with Meta on storage for VR glasses. Analysts are overwhelmingly rating it Buy or Strong Buy, with a consensus price target of $2,173 and a high of $3,600.
China’s CXMT has developed a 4F² DRAM structure, raising concerns that Chinese supply could eventually put pressure on pricing. Semiconductor stocks fell for a full week last week, dragging memory stocks down across the board. Debt concerns at CoreWeave also weighed on AI stocks. Strong fundamentals don’t necessarily mean a strong stock price—if the valuation looks cheap, it may be because the market is already pricing in the possibility that “things won’t be as good in the future.”
Second question: Will the October 29 earnings report be a reality check or a money printer?
Expected EPS is around 46, with revenue of $10.6–$10.85 billion. The market has already priced in a move of ±10%.
Historically, SNDK often beats earnings expectations.
Anyone going all-in before earnings isn’t investing—they’re buying a lottery ticket.
Third question: A technical contradiction has emerged that demands caution
The good: Today’s rebound came on higher volume, and the stock held above 1,400, an attempt to confirm a short-term bottom. Support levels are 1,350–1,370, 1,290–1,300, and 1,250–1,280.
The bad: The price is still below some moving averages, and the medium-term correction structure remains intact. 1,420–1,450 is the first resistance zone for the rebound, 1,500 is the second, and 1,600–1,650 is a moving-average resistance zone.
Today’s rebound is an oversold bounce, not a trend reversal.
For a reversal to be confirmed, the stock must move above 1,450 on higher volume and hold there.