Meta reports Q3 after Wednesday’s close, and I’m not betting on direction two days before earnings.

EPS is expected to come in at $6.67 and revenue at $63.3 billion—not bad on paper.
The ugly part is capex: an estimated $39.7 billion in Q3, more than double the same period last year, with full-year guidance reaching $125–145 billion.
Last quarter, the stock still fell 8% despite meeting earnings expectations because AI infrastructure ate into free cash flow.

It’s not all bad news.
The Muse AI assistant has topped 5 million downloads, faster than ChatGPT did back in the day.
But downloads don’t equal revenue. On Wednesday’s earnings call, Meta needs to clearly explain how much AI has boosted ad conversions.

The stock is at $709 now, with support at $715 and resistance at $750. The options market is pricing in a 6% move after earnings.
Let’s see what they say on the call: if the spending still isn’t showing returns, a break below $700 could put $680 in sight.

With the stock here on the eve of earnings, would you hold overnight and take a shot, or get out and wait for the results?

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