Even the AI arms dealers can’t take it anymore? CoreWeave lost 12% in a single Friday!
What happened: AI cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV ), which counts Nvidia among its investors, plunged 11.91% at Friday’s U.S. market close, ending at $61.39. It touched an intraday low of $59.90, setting a new 52-week low. Reuters reported that it was the company’s worst-performing week in 11 months, with a weekly decline of nearly 25%.
The trigger: debt. The market is worried about its debt burden of around $50 billion. Five-year CDS spreads surged to a record of around 1,195 basis points, while yields on bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%—the bond market has voted with its feet, betting that the company may not be able to repay (The Motley Fool). The backdrop is rising bets on interest rate hikes after September’s hotter-than-expected CPI. AI infrastructure companies that rely on borrowing to expand are among the first to feel the squeeze.
The contagion has begun: peer Nebius fell 10% on Friday, while Applied Digital and IREN each dropped 9%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight day.
Technicals: Support is at 59.90 (Friday’s intraday low; a break below it could lead to further lows). Resistance is at 66.69 (Friday’s gap) and 69.69 (Thursday’s closing level—the line in the sand before the breakdown).
The play: Cautious and bearish in the short term. Until concerns about the debt have been fully absorbed, chasing a bounce is like catching a falling knife. The invalidation condition is clear: a high-volume close back above 69.69 would show that the bearish thesis has been disproven, and I’d admit I was wrong.
Also, after Fed Chair Warsh’s public remarks on Friday, market bets on a 25bp rate hike in October fell to around 15%, down from more than 27% in recent days. Before the FOMC meeting on October 27–28, these expectations will continue to unsettle AI debt.
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#美股 #AI #CoreWeave
What happened: AI cloud provider CoreWeave ($CRWV ), which counts Nvidia among its investors, plunged 11.91% at Friday’s U.S. market close, ending at $61.39. It touched an intraday low of $59.90, setting a new 52-week low. Reuters reported that it was the company’s worst-performing week in 11 months, with a weekly decline of nearly 25%.
The trigger: debt. The market is worried about its debt burden of around $50 billion. Five-year CDS spreads surged to a record of around 1,195 basis points, while yields on bonds maturing in 2031 topped 16%—the bond market has voted with its feet, betting that the company may not be able to repay (The Motley Fool). The backdrop is rising bets on interest rate hikes after September’s hotter-than-expected CPI. AI infrastructure companies that rely on borrowing to expand are among the first to feel the squeeze.
The contagion has begun: peer Nebius fell 10% on Friday, while Applied Digital and IREN each dropped 9%. The Nasdaq closed down 2.15% on Friday, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight day.
Technicals: Support is at 59.90 (Friday’s intraday low; a break below it could lead to further lows). Resistance is at 66.69 (Friday’s gap) and 69.69 (Thursday’s closing level—the line in the sand before the breakdown).
The play: Cautious and bearish in the short term. Until concerns about the debt have been fully absorbed, chasing a bounce is like catching a falling knife. The invalidation condition is clear: a high-volume close back above 69.69 would show that the bearish thesis has been disproven, and I’d admit I was wrong.
Also, after Fed Chair Warsh’s public remarks on Friday, market bets on a 25bp rate hike in October fell to around 15%, down from more than 27% in recent days. Before the FOMC meeting on October 27–28, these expectations will continue to unsettle AI debt.
⚠️ Just my personal ramblings; this is not investment advice.
#美股 #AI #CoreWeave