Why do I think BTC could hit new lows?
The core of my bearish thesis is not simply technical analysis, but changes in macroeconomic policy and liquidity in the crypto market.
1. The U.S. midterm elections are adding uncertainty to the market. The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and policy expectations and market sentiment may fluctuate.
2. Global interest rate pressures may persist. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. If inflation persists, policy divergence among major central banks and a high-interest-rate environment could both weigh on risk asset valuations.
3. RWA is changing the flow of funds in the crypto market. Some funds are being allocated to traditional financial products through tokenized assets, but it remains uncertain whether those funds will truly flow back into USDT and re-enter BTC and ETH. Liquidity in the crypto market does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
My price outlook:
BTC: $86,000 could be the cyclical high for this phase. The next key level to watch is $57,000; if macro risks intensify, a drop to $30,000 cannot be ruled out.
ETH: Around $2,800 could be the cyclical high for this phase. I’ll be watching $1,400, and around $1,000 in an extreme scenario.
Conclusion: If high interest rates persist, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market lacks fresh inflows, BTC and ETH could still face a deeper correction.
This is my personal market outlook, not a prediction of a certain outcome. The key is not to guess the top, but to watch whether interest rates, fund flows, and key support levels continue to deteriorate.
The core of my bearish thesis is not simply technical analysis, but changes in macroeconomic policy and liquidity in the crypto market.
1. The U.S. midterm elections are adding uncertainty to the market. The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3, 2026, and policy expectations and market sentiment may fluctuate.
2. Global interest rate pressures may persist. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. If inflation persists, policy divergence among major central banks and a high-interest-rate environment could both weigh on risk asset valuations.
3. RWA is changing the flow of funds in the crypto market. Some funds are being allocated to traditional financial products through tokenized assets, but it remains uncertain whether those funds will truly flow back into USDT and re-enter BTC and ETH. Liquidity in the crypto market does not necessarily mean prices will rise.
My price outlook:
BTC: $86,000 could be the cyclical high for this phase. The next key level to watch is $57,000; if macro risks intensify, a drop to $30,000 cannot be ruled out.
ETH: Around $2,800 could be the cyclical high for this phase. I’ll be watching $1,400, and around $1,000 in an extreme scenario.
Conclusion: If high interest rates persist, risk appetite declines, and the crypto market lacks fresh inflows, BTC and ETH could still face a deeper correction.
This is my personal market outlook, not a prediction of a certain outcome. The key is not to guess the top, but to watch whether interest rates, fund flows, and key support levels continue to deteriorate.