I. Quick crypto market update
1. Top trader Joshua
Updated October 9 at 12:27 a.m. Beijing time:
Looks like a short-term bottom has formed for TACO.
Updated October 9 at 1:39 a.m. Beijing time:
Calling for a bounce.
(Joshua probably took a short-term long position on the bounce.)
2. Top trader RunnerXBT
Updated October 9 at 4:18 a.m. Beijing time:
Personally, I think today’s sell-off in the crypto market was an overreaction to this hypothetical “what if” scenario.
Today was actually a good time to stop out and close those poorly positioned shorts, haha. Especially for those who shorted ZEC too early.
I’ve added to my BTC long. Good night.
Update: October 9, 7:48 p.m. Beijing time:
The timeline went wild just because someone at the Ethereum Foundation wrote a long commentary article. That’s fucking bullish, haha. BTC has already reclaimed the price it was at when the article was published.
I’ll most likely close my profitable BTC long before the U.S. stock market opens in 90 minutes. I have some things to take care of in real life, and ETFs have been selling heavily over the past few sessions. This long was an easy trade—free money, really. Thanks to all the panic sellers.
Remember this… Making 1.5%–2% a day can keep you away from FOMO.
(RunnerXBT bought the dip at 4 a.m. Beijing time and closed the position after the U.S. market opened, making a quick profit on a short-term long.)
3. Top trader Jasonleo (Target Bro)
Update: October 9, 2:10 a.m. Beijing time:
What I’m watching most closely in this pullback isn’t how much the price has fallen, but why it has fallen only this much. There have been quite a few macro headwinds lately. The 30-year Treasury yield is nearing 5.7%, and the 10-year is around 5.3%; expectations of another rate hike this year have strengthened; oil prices and inflationary pressures are picking up again; and a suspected plague incident in Russia has also stirred some panic. In the past, many of these developments on their own would have been enough to trigger a significant BTC drop. Now, several bearish factors have hit at once, yet BTC has only pulled back around 5%. That’s why I’ve always felt that the news is just the surface; the price reaction to the news is what really matters. Most people trade based on emotion. When prices rise, all they see is bullish news; when prices fall, all they see is bearish news. But only a few can sift through all the noise and find what’s actually useful. All appearances are illusory. When bearish news keeps piling up but the price gets harder and harder to push down, that itself tells us something. This is somewhat like the move at 58K, but not quite the same. At 58K, after extreme pessimism, the market began showing signs that it was running out of sellers. Now, the macro environment is applying constant pressure in a strong trend, yet the price still hasn’t been seriously damaged. So at this point, I don’t think we’ll drop straight to 7.8, let alone 7.4. But trading isn’t about proving you’re always right. If we break below 7.9, I’ll start reducing my position. If the daily candle closes below 7.8, I’ll close all remaining longs. If we don’t break below those levels, I’ll keep holding.
(Target Bro remains bullish on BTC and plans to stop out of his long if the daily candle closes below 78,000.)
4. Trader Dr.profit
Update: October 9, 2:12 a.m. Beijing time:
Friends, I’ve closed all my shorts and taken profit.
Buy: $BTC at $80,600; $ETH at $2,400; $CRCL at $78; $COIN at $172
Let’s go!
DrProfit's candlestick chart:
I no longer expect BTC to fall to $79,000, because today’s low of $80,300 was enough.
Update: October 9, 10:12 a.m. Beijing time:
I owe you an apology.
Unfortunately, I wasn’t bullish enough at the time.
I don’t know what got into me yesterday. Maybe I’d read too many low-IQ comments. I can’t even explain what made me write such a shameful comment.
I previously only called for $88,000, and I’m deeply sorry about that. What I really meant was $94,000.
(Dr.profit closed his BTC short opened at 86K early and flipped long. He’s still bullish.)
5. Trader Vivian
Update: October 9, 9:32 p.m. Beijing time:
Good morning! $BTC My long was stopped out.
BTC closed below $82,500 last night, but it did not close below that level again afterward, so this is not considered a structural breakdown.
For spot, the path to $93,000 is still open; ultimately, it depends on the daily close.
Since TOTAL is still below $2.8 trillion, the intraday trend remains bearish. But buying pressure at $82,500 has been strong enough, so we can scrap the plan to short heavily this month. This suggests that the first leg on the chart may not have topped out yet.
The intraday structure is currently bullish, but $82,500 is this week’s low. We need to see the price break above $83,500 before going long again.
However, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) have continued to form during the Asian, London, and New York sessions. So, if a 15-minute candle closes above $83,500, we can consider this downtrend over and start looking for long entries again.
But we don’t expect this to happen today, as selling pressure is still present.
If the market continues to move sideways today and still closes above $82,500, we can consider the selling pressure absorbed by participants on other timeframes—in other words, institutions’ limit buy orders.
Today, we need to wait for the right entry opportunity.
Break above $83,500: go long.
Break below $82,200: go short, target $81,500.
If the latter scenario plays out, altcoin trading opportunities will be better, since TOTAL is below $2.8 trillion.
If the former scenario plays out, going long on any asset could be considered.
We need to wait patiently until one of these two conditions is met.
(Vivian is still on the sidelines, but plans to enter on the right side once the trend becomes clear.)
6. Liu Yudong on Elliott Wave Theory
BTC October 9, 2026
The rally from the blue dot could be an xx wave, a B wave, or a wave 3.
The purple line fits a double zigzag. A leading diagonal also cannot yet be ruled out.
If the price breaks below the green dashed line, it means the entire rally from the blue dot to the red dot is over and a retracement is underway.
If the price doesn’t break below the green dashed line, it can still continue rising along the green line.
Current resistance is the red dashed line at 83,461. Breaking above it would turn things bullish; below it, the market remains weak.
If the move from the blue dot to the red dot is complete, the retracement range will be between 0.2 and 0.618 of that move, followed by another rise.
(Liu Yudong thinks BTC is currently in a correction, and a break below 80,026 would deepen it.)
II. Summary
BTC fell to around 80,300 in the early hours of Beijing time today, but ETH and altcoins dropped even more. The rebound today has also been quite strong: ETH bounced by more than 110 points. But a rebound is still just a rebound, and the daily chart is already bearish.
A lot of big players bought the dip early this morning, and some have already taken profit. I followed Aoying into a ZEC long at 1,140 and manually took profit too. For now, I’m playing defense in case the market continues to fall.
Disclaimer:
The information above is for reference only and is not trading advice. Trading involves high risk; proceed with caution.
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