Will tonight’s inflation expectations weigh on QQQ?
QQQ rebounded in premarket trading. I expect it could still be prone to a rally followed by a pullback over the next one or two trading sessions. Yesterday’s high-volume drop hasn’t been fully recovered, and there’s another survey at 10 p.m. tonight that could affect interest-rate expectations. I think it’s a little too soon to chase the rally.
QQQ closed yesterday at $747.60, down 1.34%, on volume about 95% higher than the previous day. It was back near $754 in premarket trading tonight, recovering much of yesterday’s decline, but it hasn’t returned to Wednesday’s close around $758.
The preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s October Consumer Survey will be released at 10 p.m. tonight. In September, consumers expected inflation of 4.6% over the next year, up from 4.0% in August, while long-term expectations rose from 3.3% to 3.4%. That’s just background from the previous survey; the October results aren’t out yet.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes noted that some officials were concerned persistent high inflation was starting to affect wage and pricing decisions. If the new survey shows people expect prices to rise even faster, there could be more reason to keep raising rates. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses. However enticing the future earnings of tech companies may be, investors may be more reluctant to pay a premium for them, putting pressure on QQQ.
If inflation expectations ease tonight and the rebound after the open holds through the close, I’d become more optimistic about further gains over the next one or two trading sessions. One survey alone won’t determine the Fed’s actions. If consumers are simply more worried about jobs and income, businesses could have an even harder time. A lower confidence reading shouldn’t automatically be treated as good news for stocks.
This time, I’d rather see Americans feeling less anxious about prices. A weaker confidence reading alone isn’t enough to carry this rebound much further.
#QQQ #美股 #Inflation
QQQ rebounded in premarket trading. I expect it could still be prone to a rally followed by a pullback over the next one or two trading sessions. Yesterday’s high-volume drop hasn’t been fully recovered, and there’s another survey at 10 p.m. tonight that could affect interest-rate expectations. I think it’s a little too soon to chase the rally.
QQQ closed yesterday at $747.60, down 1.34%, on volume about 95% higher than the previous day. It was back near $754 in premarket trading tonight, recovering much of yesterday’s decline, but it hasn’t returned to Wednesday’s close around $758.
The preliminary results of the University of Michigan’s October Consumer Survey will be released at 10 p.m. tonight. In September, consumers expected inflation of 4.6% over the next year, up from 4.0% in August, while long-term expectations rose from 3.3% to 3.4%. That’s just background from the previous survey; the October results aren’t out yet.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes noted that some officials were concerned persistent high inflation was starting to affect wage and pricing decisions. If the new survey shows people expect prices to rise even faster, there could be more reason to keep raising rates. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for businesses. However enticing the future earnings of tech companies may be, investors may be more reluctant to pay a premium for them, putting pressure on QQQ.
If inflation expectations ease tonight and the rebound after the open holds through the close, I’d become more optimistic about further gains over the next one or two trading sessions. One survey alone won’t determine the Fed’s actions. If consumers are simply more worried about jobs and income, businesses could have an even harder time. A lower confidence reading shouldn’t automatically be treated as good news for stocks.
This time, I’d rather see Americans feeling less anxious about prices. A weaker confidence reading alone isn’t enough to carry this rebound much further.
#QQQ #美股 #Inflation