People are still farming volume for Backpack (@Backpack) Season 2 US stock mystery boxes. How much can VIP1 actually save? I ran the numbers assuming all perpetual trades are market orders: fees for the first box come to about $2.60, roughly equal to the expected value of a Season 2 box. Starting with the second box, the extra fees for each additional box become noticeably higher than its expected value.

When you’re farming volume, the trading volume racks up quickly, but fees are deducted from your account one trade at a time. It’s easy to think opening a few more boxes is no big deal unless you lay out the costs. Below, I’ve broken down the cost of each box based on the official thresholds.

First, let’s pin down the assumptions. The official VIP1 taker fee is 0.026% for perpetuals and 0.045% for spot trades. The volume counted for Season 2 mainly comes from perpetuals and crypto spot trades; Convert, USDT/USDC pairs, and US stock spot trades don’t count, so I’m using the perpetual market-order rate. The thresholds are still $10,000, $50,000, $150,000, $300,000, and $600,000 to unlock one box each; after that, every additional $500,000 unlocks another box, up to a maximum of 10. The event runs until 7:59 on 10/14, and boxes can be opened from 10/15 to 10/22. Based on the official Season 2 odds and reference values, I estimate the expected value of each box at about $3.10. The common-tier prizes are worth about $1, while the hidden prize is listed at $1,000 but has only a 0.05% chance of dropping, so the median value isn’t great.

The fee breakdown for each box is below. The accompanying image has the same table.

1️⃣ Box 1: $10,000 cumulative volume; $10,000 added in this tier; $2.6 in fees; $2.6 in cumulative fees.

2️⃣ Box 2: $50,000 cumulative volume; $40,000 added in this tier; $10.4 in fees; $13.0 in cumulative fees.

3️⃣ Box 3: $150,000 cumulative volume; $100,000 added in this tier; $26.0 in fees; $39.0 in cumulative fees.

4️⃣ Box 4: $300,000 cumulative volume; $150,000 added in this tier; $39.0 in fees; $78.0 in cumulative fees.

5️⃣ Box 5: $600,000 cumulative volume; $300,000 added in this tier; $78.0 in fees; $156.0 in cumulative fees.

6️⃣ For Boxes 6–10, each tier adds another $500,000 in trading volume, with an extra $130 in fees per box. Filling all 10 boxes would cost about $806 in total fees.

Only Box 1 makes sense: $2.6 in fees against an expected value of about $3.1. After deducting a little slippage and funding fees, you’re basically getting a box for free. The marginal fee for Box 2 is already $10.4, more than three times its expected value. From Box 3 onward, it’s over eight times the expected value. After Box 6, each additional box costs about $130 more, for a box with an expected value of only $3. Filling all 10 boxes would cost about $806 in fees, while the 10 boxes have a combined expected value of about $31. That’s an apparent loss of about $775, not counting slippage, funding fees, or losses from market movements.

If you use spot market orders instead, the VIP1 taker fee is 0.045%. For the same trading volume, fees would be about 1.73 times those in the table above. Box 1 alone would cost about $4.5, already more than its expected value. Fees are based on what your account shows in real time, and VIP tiers are recalculated hourly, so check your tier before placing an order.

I’d still treat these as freebies from regular trading. The arbitrage hedge leg would be traded on Backpack anyway, so you might as well pick up the first one or two boxes. No one would specifically churn trades just to get the $130 tier for Box 6 and beyond. If you’re thinking of going for it, review the fee table first, then decide which box to stop at. Be sure to DYOR.

@solana @Solana_zh