The Fed minutes deliver a hawkish signal
The Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes show that all 19 policymakers supported a September rate hike, and most participants believed that another increase before year-end could be appropriate. However, the overall discussion did not indicate a willingness to push for multiple consecutive rate hikes. Nearly all officials believe inflation remains elevated, and the labor market is approaching full employment.
Goldman Sachs’ view is that the probability of a December rate hike is higher. It also highlighted the possibility that the case for further tightening may not be necessary—meaning the final decision will heavily depend on the economic data available at that time. Fed Governor Waller expects the dot plot in 2027 to reflect a path of hikes followed by cuts from the start of the year, and said that AI infrastructure investment and energy shocks are making inflation pressures more persistent.
In terms of market impact, crypto assets as a high-beta category are most sensitive to interest-rate changes. The September rate hike was already priced in as a bearish factor; if there is another hike later in the year, it would weigh on risk-asset valuations. The minutes also suggest that October is not urgent, meaning near-term downside pressure is limited.
Institutional funds clearly exit
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $485 million, the largest single-day outflow in nearly 30 days. BlackRock’s IBIT had a net outflow of $208 million, Fidelity’s FBTC outflow was $105 million, ARK’s ARKB outflow was $102 million, Grayscale’s GBTC outflow was $39.3 million, and Bitwise’s BITB outflow was $27.6 million.
On the same day, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of $161 million, including a $116 million net outflow from BlackRock’s ETHA and a $25.8 million net outflow from Grayscale’s ETHE.
Crypto ETFs overall had a combined net outflow of $650.6 million, the largest single-day outflow in the past 30 days.
Compared with September, when crypto ETFs saw a逆势净流入 of $2.6 billion, the direction reversed overnight. This shows that institutional funds respond extremely quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations.
Midterm elections and regulatory progress
The chair of the House Financial Services Committee said that the SEC and CFTC’s crypto regulatory actions are still insufficient, and that it hopes to pass the CLARITY Act after the midterm elections. The CLARITY Act was not advanced in the Senate this September, with a vote of 49–50. After the House adjourns until the November elections, comprehensive market-structure rules would need to be postponed until after the election or until 2027.
Some analysts believe that within 12 months after the midterm elections, the probability of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rising could reach 100%, arguing that historically the market faced pressure before midterm elections and then repaired after the elections. $BTC
The Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes show that all 19 policymakers supported a September rate hike, and most participants believed that another increase before year-end could be appropriate. However, the overall discussion did not indicate a willingness to push for multiple consecutive rate hikes. Nearly all officials believe inflation remains elevated, and the labor market is approaching full employment.
Goldman Sachs’ view is that the probability of a December rate hike is higher. It also highlighted the possibility that the case for further tightening may not be necessary—meaning the final decision will heavily depend on the economic data available at that time. Fed Governor Waller expects the dot plot in 2027 to reflect a path of hikes followed by cuts from the start of the year, and said that AI infrastructure investment and energy shocks are making inflation pressures more persistent.
In terms of market impact, crypto assets as a high-beta category are most sensitive to interest-rate changes. The September rate hike was already priced in as a bearish factor; if there is another hike later in the year, it would weigh on risk-asset valuations. The minutes also suggest that October is not urgent, meaning near-term downside pressure is limited.
Institutional funds clearly exit
On October 7, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a daily net outflow of $485 million, the largest single-day outflow in nearly 30 days. BlackRock’s IBIT had a net outflow of $208 million, Fidelity’s FBTC outflow was $105 million, ARK’s ARKB outflow was $102 million, Grayscale’s GBTC outflow was $39.3 million, and Bitwise’s BITB outflow was $27.6 million.
On the same day, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of $161 million, including a $116 million net outflow from BlackRock’s ETHA and a $25.8 million net outflow from Grayscale’s ETHE.
Crypto ETFs overall had a combined net outflow of $650.6 million, the largest single-day outflow in the past 30 days.
Compared with September, when crypto ETFs saw a逆势净流入 of $2.6 billion, the direction reversed overnight. This shows that institutional funds respond extremely quickly to changes in interest-rate expectations.
Midterm elections and regulatory progress
The chair of the House Financial Services Committee said that the SEC and CFTC’s crypto regulatory actions are still insufficient, and that it hopes to pass the CLARITY Act after the midterm elections. The CLARITY Act was not advanced in the Senate this September, with a vote of 49–50. After the House adjourns until the November elections, comprehensive market-structure rules would need to be postponed until after the election or until 2027.
Some analysts believe that within 12 months after the midterm elections, the probability of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin rising could reach 100%, arguing that historically the market faced pressure before midterm elections and then repaired after the elections. $BTC