AAVE rises 1% to $175: Price rebounds, but OI value falls 10% in nearly 30 hours
Bottom line: Both spot AAVE and perpetuals rebounded from their intraday lows to around $175, but this rebound came alongside shrinking futures leverage, not expanding open interest. A short-term move back above $175 does not mean the trend has reversed; unless the price recaptures $177.2–$177.4 on a completed candle, chasing the rally does not offer an attractive risk-reward.
As of around 11:00 on October 8, 2026, Beijing time, Binance spot AAVEUSDT was trading at about $175.74, up 1.09% over 24 hours, with a range of $170.00–$177.36; USDⓈ-M AAVEUSDT perpetuals were trading at about $175.65, up 1.20% over 24 hours, with a range of $169.78–$177.22. Spot and perpetual prices were close, with no obvious abnormal premium in the futures market at the time.
Momentum does not support defining this rebound as a breakout directly. The most recent closed 1-hour candlestick was at $175.74, with trading volume of about $7.49 million, which is 1.45 times the average volume of the previous 20 closed 1-hour candlesticks—suggesting that there is indeed some short-term capital returning. However, the most recent closed 4-hour candlestick had trading volume of about $13.94 million, only 0.55 times the previous 20-candle average. The most recent closed daily candle opened at $179.58, had a high of $179.67, a low of $169.78, and closed at $173.98, with trading volume of about $156 million, also below the previous 20-candle average of roughly $177 million. In other words, the rebound on the hourly timeframe has volume, but the 4-hour and daily timeframes have not yet formed a volume expansion confirmation in the same direction.
The futures data remains relatively cautious. Binance’s published OI (open interest) history shows that within about 29 hours, the number of AAVE perpetual contracts fell from 479,788 to 449,687, a decline of about 6.27%. On a notional value basis, it dropped from roughly $86.56 million to about $78.15 million, down about 9.72%. When price returns to around $175 but the OI value continues to contract, it looks more like deleveraging and short covering after a drop, rather than simply meaning new longs are taking over. The latest funding rate is about +0.0100% per settlement cycle. A positive funding rate only indicates that the long side’s cost of carry is positive; it is not a signal of a turnaround or a breakout.
Next, you can watch three key levels. First, $177.2–$177.4 is the current 24-hour high zone; at least a new 1-hour or 4-hour close is needed to hold above it, to show the rebound is not yet failing by rallying and then turning back down. Second, $179.67 is the most recent closed daily high; if it can be reclaimed with volume support, the structure would be closer to a genuine repair. Third, $172.03 is the most recent closed 4-hour low; if the market closes below it and continues approaching $169.78, the rebound thesis would be invalidated and the market may test intraday lows again.
Therefore, it is more appropriate right now to define AAVE as being in an “observation phase during price repair and leverage unwinding,” rather than confirming a breakout. The long side needs at least two out of three—closing price, 4-hour volume, and OI—to turn stronger again. If it’s only that the price tags the $177 area, while volume rapidly fades and OI keeps falling, the risk of a rally-and-fail remains high. The above is an analysis based on publicly available market data and does not constitute investment advice.