Historical data shows that Bitcoin ( $BTC ) has a very high probability of rising in October each year.
In 10 of the past 13 Octobers, prices closed higher; in only 3 did they close lower.
There have been 3 years in which Bitcoin fell in October:
October 2014: -13.4% (a period of sharp declines in the bear market)
October 2018: -4.5% (just before the bear market bottomed)
October 2025: -3.9% (shocked by a sudden black swan event, macro tariff concerns, and a liquidation crisis, ending a multi-year winning streak for October)
Even when October ultimately closes with a big bullish candle, there are often intra-month pullbacks of around 2%–10% or liquidity hunts. Chasing long positions with high leverage can lead to liquidation during the shakeout early in the month.
Seasonal patterns mainly reflect probabilities and market sentiment, but when major shifts in macro policy (such as Fed rate decisions or CPI releases) or sudden black swan events occur, macro trends can still dictate the broader market’s direction.
In 10 of the past 13 Octobers, prices closed higher; in only 3 did they close lower.
There have been 3 years in which Bitcoin fell in October:
October 2014: -13.4% (a period of sharp declines in the bear market)
October 2018: -4.5% (just before the bear market bottomed)
October 2025: -3.9% (shocked by a sudden black swan event, macro tariff concerns, and a liquidation crisis, ending a multi-year winning streak for October)
Even when October ultimately closes with a big bullish candle, there are often intra-month pullbacks of around 2%–10% or liquidity hunts. Chasing long positions with high leverage can lead to liquidation during the shakeout early in the month.
Seasonal patterns mainly reflect probabilities and market sentiment, but when major shifts in macro policy (such as Fed rate decisions or CPI releases) or sudden black swan events occur, macro trends can still dictate the broader market’s direction.