$CL Crude oil has moved above 90: Gate perpetuals are at 90.12, +0.40% over 24h, with a daily high of 90.42 (9 a.m. today) and a low of 86.93 (8 p.m. last night). The range is about 4.0%, and the funding rate is -0.021% (8h). 24h trading volume is about 91.9 million U. Brent $BZ has also moved above 100, now at 101.27, +0.66%. It climbed from 97.0 to 101.52 intraday, with a funding rate of -0.095% (8h)—shorts are paying even more than they are on WTI.
Market action: Yesterday from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m., crude oil steadily weakened, falling from 89.9 to 86.93. The 8 p.m. candle, at around 7.07 million U, was the largest of the day. It began recovering at 11 p.m.; at midnight, a candle of about 7.47 million U pushed it to 89.6. It then held between 89.0 and 89.9 through the night. At 9 a.m. today, it broke above 90 and touched 90.42. It is now consolidating above 90 on declining volume, with the pullback bottoming at just 89.95.
Transmission chain: That same morning, from 9 to 10 a.m., BTC plunged from 85,500 to 83,512 on about 1.4 billion U in volume. It is now at 84,070, down 1.75%. SPY is up 0.56%, QQQ up 0.41%, and gold is at 4,145, up 0.35%. Oil is rising, U.S. stocks are holding up, and crypto is falling. This looks more like higher oil prices pushing inflation expectations up and dampening rate-cut hopes, leading investors to trim positions in crypto first, where leverage is highest and there is no cash flow to provide a floor. U.S. stocks have not followed suit for now, but if oil keeps rising, the pressure will eventually spill over.
Bottom line: Crude oil's structure is bullish. Negative funding suggests shorts have not given up yet, so fuel for a short squeeze remains. Consider a small long position on a pullback to 89.6–89.9, with a stop at 89.0. First target: 90.42; above that, 91. Admit the trade is wrong if it falls below 89. As for BTC, while oil holds above 90, don't add to the position unless BTC gets back above 85,000. Keep position size below 10%.
Market action: Yesterday from 2 p.m. to 8 p.m., crude oil steadily weakened, falling from 89.9 to 86.93. The 8 p.m. candle, at around 7.07 million U, was the largest of the day. It began recovering at 11 p.m.; at midnight, a candle of about 7.47 million U pushed it to 89.6. It then held between 89.0 and 89.9 through the night. At 9 a.m. today, it broke above 90 and touched 90.42. It is now consolidating above 90 on declining volume, with the pullback bottoming at just 89.95.
Transmission chain: That same morning, from 9 to 10 a.m., BTC plunged from 85,500 to 83,512 on about 1.4 billion U in volume. It is now at 84,070, down 1.75%. SPY is up 0.56%, QQQ up 0.41%, and gold is at 4,145, up 0.35%. Oil is rising, U.S. stocks are holding up, and crypto is falling. This looks more like higher oil prices pushing inflation expectations up and dampening rate-cut hopes, leading investors to trim positions in crypto first, where leverage is highest and there is no cash flow to provide a floor. U.S. stocks have not followed suit for now, but if oil keeps rising, the pressure will eventually spill over.
Bottom line: Crude oil's structure is bullish. Negative funding suggests shorts have not given up yet, so fuel for a short squeeze remains. Consider a small long position on a pullback to 89.6–89.9, with a stop at 89.0. First target: 90.42; above that, 91. Admit the trade is wrong if it falls below 89. As for BTC, while oil holds above 90, don't add to the position unless BTC gets back above 85,000. Keep position size below 10%.