The Fed Holds in October; December May Be Hard to Avoid
Latest CME FedWatch data: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October is 77.3%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike is 22.7%. At noon on October 5, those figures were still 82.3% and 17.7%. In less than a day, the odds of a hike rose by 5 percentage points.
Looking further ahead, the odds are even more striking: The cumulative probability of rate hikes by December has reached 86.6%, including an 18.8% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The probability of no change is down to just 13.4%.
Here’s the contrast: The odds of a hike jumped 5 points in a day, while Bitcoin moved just 0.2% over 24 hours. The market still seems to regard October as a safe window. My view is that the Fed will most likely hold in October, with the real pressure shifting to its year-end meeting.
I’m treating December as the main event. I won’t chase prices higher over the next few days; first, I’ll watch to see whether the odds of a rate hike keep climbing.
#ProbabilityOfTheFedHoldingRatesInOctoberRisesTo82.3% $BTC
Latest CME FedWatch data: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in October is 77.3%, while the chance of a 25-basis-point hike is 22.7%. At noon on October 5, those figures were still 82.3% and 17.7%. In less than a day, the odds of a hike rose by 5 percentage points.
Looking further ahead, the odds are even more striking: The cumulative probability of rate hikes by December has reached 86.6%, including an 18.8% chance of a 50-basis-point hike. The probability of no change is down to just 13.4%.
Here’s the contrast: The odds of a hike jumped 5 points in a day, while Bitcoin moved just 0.2% over 24 hours. The market still seems to regard October as a safe window. My view is that the Fed will most likely hold in October, with the real pressure shifting to its year-end meeting.
I’m treating December as the main event. I won’t chase prices higher over the next few days; first, I’ll watch to see whether the odds of a rate hike keep climbing.
#ProbabilityOfTheFedHoldingRatesInOctoberRisesTo82.3% $BTC
