$CL #OilMarket
🚨 There is 1 NEW development significant enough to make a slight ledger adjustment, and 1 additional new macro data point that is not yet enough to score separately.
The Houthis have expanded their warning to cover all of Saudi Arabia’s airspace. A Houthi-controlled coordinating authority warned airlines that Saudi airspace is “unsafe” and would become a “theater of operations” if Saudi Arabia’s military campaign in Yemen continues. Reuters published the report at around 13:28 UTC on 5/10 = 20:28 Vietnam time, making it newer than the previous check. Saudi Arabia had not issued an official response by the time Reuters published.
I classify this as a headline/security escalation, not a physical supply loss. It increases the likelihood that the Houthis will expand their targets to include Saudi airports, military facilities, and energy infrastructure; however, there is no new confirmation of lost output, a pipeline shutdown, or a refinery outage. Therefore, the appropriate adjustment is 🟢 Bullish +1.
One point to filter out as noise: a lower-tier source reported that the Jeddah refinery had been hit, but I have not found confirmation from Reuters/AP/Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry, or Aramco. So I am not scoring the Jeddah report at this time.
Ledger: 🟢 66 / 🔴34 → +1 Bullish → 🟢67 / 🔴33.
🚨 There is 1 NEW development significant enough to make a slight ledger adjustment, and 1 additional new macro data point that is not yet enough to score separately.
The Houthis have expanded their warning to cover all of Saudi Arabia’s airspace. A Houthi-controlled coordinating authority warned airlines that Saudi airspace is “unsafe” and would become a “theater of operations” if Saudi Arabia’s military campaign in Yemen continues. Reuters published the report at around 13:28 UTC on 5/10 = 20:28 Vietnam time, making it newer than the previous check. Saudi Arabia had not issued an official response by the time Reuters published.
I classify this as a headline/security escalation, not a physical supply loss. It increases the likelihood that the Houthis will expand their targets to include Saudi airports, military facilities, and energy infrastructure; however, there is no new confirmation of lost output, a pipeline shutdown, or a refinery outage. Therefore, the appropriate adjustment is 🟢 Bullish +1.
One point to filter out as noise: a lower-tier source reported that the Jeddah refinery had been hit, but I have not found confirmation from Reuters/AP/Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry, or Aramco. So I am not scoring the Jeddah report at this time.
Ledger: 🟢 66 / 🔴34 → +1 Bullish → 🟢67 / 🔴33.