$DOGE is up 3.8% over the past two days, while open interest is up 6.4%. Price is lagging behind leverage—this looks more like kindling for the next liquidation cascade.
The daily highs have been stepping down since September 22’s 0.10589: 0.09984, 0.09819, 0.09796, 0.09760, and 0.09719 today. Each high is lower than the last, yet open interest has grown from 2.969 billion coins on the morning of October 4 to 3.158 billion, just 2% shy of September 23’s 3.219 billion. The last time open interest was this high, DOGE fell 7.7% that day.
Who’s adding? The large-trader long/short ratio has risen from 3.81 to 4.07, with 80% of positions on the long side; the retail account long/short ratio is 2.30. The taker buy/sell ratios over the past three hours were 1.41, 1.15, and 1.34—buyers keep hitting the market, but price is still stuck between 0.0960 and 0.0972, with someone absorbing the buying above.
The indicators don’t look bad. Daily KDJ (9,3,3): K 50.1, D 42.7, J 64.9. A golden cross formed on October 4, and J has turned up from 13. Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 0.09306, upper band 0.10369, lower band 0.08244. The bandwidth has contracted from 30.3% to 22.8% in a week, while %B is 0.65—it’s coiling for a move. The daily EMA50 at 0.08822 is still below the EMA200 at 0.09062, so the long-term trend hasn’t turned bullish.
Structurally, 0.0947–0.0950 marks today’s low, and the 4H EMA50 is at 0.0944. If that breaks, watch 0.0906 (daily EMA200) and 0.0903 (the October 2 low). A daily close above 0.0982 would break the descending resistance line that’s capped price for two weeks, invalidating my bearish view.
The KDJ golden cross has formed, and plenty of people are calling for a catch-up rally. I’m more focused on large traders having 80% of their positions long, all stacked beneath a downward-sloping ceiling. The longs are probably the first to get shaken out. If the large traders’ 4-to-1 long/short bet is right this time, then I’m wrong.
#DOGE #合约持仓
The daily highs have been stepping down since September 22’s 0.10589: 0.09984, 0.09819, 0.09796, 0.09760, and 0.09719 today. Each high is lower than the last, yet open interest has grown from 2.969 billion coins on the morning of October 4 to 3.158 billion, just 2% shy of September 23’s 3.219 billion. The last time open interest was this high, DOGE fell 7.7% that day.
Who’s adding? The large-trader long/short ratio has risen from 3.81 to 4.07, with 80% of positions on the long side; the retail account long/short ratio is 2.30. The taker buy/sell ratios over the past three hours were 1.41, 1.15, and 1.34—buyers keep hitting the market, but price is still stuck between 0.0960 and 0.0972, with someone absorbing the buying above.
The indicators don’t look bad. Daily KDJ (9,3,3): K 50.1, D 42.7, J 64.9. A golden cross formed on October 4, and J has turned up from 13. Daily Bollinger Bands (20,2): middle band 0.09306, upper band 0.10369, lower band 0.08244. The bandwidth has contracted from 30.3% to 22.8% in a week, while %B is 0.65—it’s coiling for a move. The daily EMA50 at 0.08822 is still below the EMA200 at 0.09062, so the long-term trend hasn’t turned bullish.
Structurally, 0.0947–0.0950 marks today’s low, and the 4H EMA50 is at 0.0944. If that breaks, watch 0.0906 (daily EMA200) and 0.0903 (the October 2 low). A daily close above 0.0982 would break the descending resistance line that’s capped price for two weeks, invalidating my bearish view.
The KDJ golden cross has formed, and plenty of people are calling for a catch-up rally. I’m more focused on large traders having 80% of their positions long, all stacked beneath a downward-sloping ceiling. The longs are probably the first to get shaken out. If the large traders’ 4-to-1 long/short bet is right this time, then I’m wrong.
#DOGE #合约持仓
