Hormuz is still not reopening, and OPEC+ has decided to keep production unchanged in November. The risk premium in the energy market has not disappeared yet.
The impact on BTC is not simply about whether oil prices are rising or falling, but about whether they will rekindle inflation expectations.
With Hormuz constrained → higher crude supply and transportation risks → oil prices staying elevated → inflation expectations warming up → rate-cut expectations cooling off → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening → pressure on liquidity → BTC and risk assets under pressure.
Currently, WTI is already near $90, and the U.S. Dollar Index has also moved above 102. If Hormuz continues to show no substantive recovery, and OPEC+ does not add supply, oil prices may break higher again, and the market could once again price in energy-driven inflation.
However, since OPEC+ is not cutting production further, it also indicates that the supply side is not tightening further for now. Later, if Hormuz recovers and transportation risk declines, the risk premium embedded in oil prices could also fall quickly.
So, in the short term, watch three key variables: whether WTI can hold above $90, whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, and whether the U.S. Dollar Index can remain above 102.
If oil prices rise, yields rise, and the dollar strengthens—and BTC then breaks below key support—the risk of a pullback would increase significantly.
If Hormuz recovers, oil prices fall, and yields and the dollar weaken in tandem, only then will BTC’s liquidity pressure truly ease.
My view is that what is currently bearish for BTC is not a single oil price factor, but the combination of “Hormuz not opening + oil prices staying high + a strengthening dollar.”
The short-term transmission chain remains: Hormuz → crude oil → U.S. Treasury yields → the dollar → BTC.
The impact on BTC is not simply about whether oil prices are rising or falling, but about whether they will rekindle inflation expectations.
With Hormuz constrained → higher crude supply and transportation risks → oil prices staying elevated → inflation expectations warming up → rate-cut expectations cooling off → U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthening → pressure on liquidity → BTC and risk assets under pressure.
Currently, WTI is already near $90, and the U.S. Dollar Index has also moved above 102. If Hormuz continues to show no substantive recovery, and OPEC+ does not add supply, oil prices may break higher again, and the market could once again price in energy-driven inflation.
However, since OPEC+ is not cutting production further, it also indicates that the supply side is not tightening further for now. Later, if Hormuz recovers and transportation risk declines, the risk premium embedded in oil prices could also fall quickly.
So, in the short term, watch three key variables: whether WTI can hold above $90, whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continues to rise, and whether the U.S. Dollar Index can remain above 102.
If oil prices rise, yields rise, and the dollar strengthens—and BTC then breaks below key support—the risk of a pullback would increase significantly.
If Hormuz recovers, oil prices fall, and yields and the dollar weaken in tandem, only then will BTC’s liquidity pressure truly ease.
My view is that what is currently bearish for BTC is not a single oil price factor, but the combination of “Hormuz not opening + oil prices staying high + a strengthening dollar.”
The short-term transmission chain remains: Hormuz → crude oil → U.S. Treasury yields → the dollar → BTC.