OPEC+ reviews its oil supply after the G7 releases reserves

The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the benchmark in Europe, closed the week at $102.25 in London, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark in the Americas, closed Friday’s session in New York at $91.11.

The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will assess this Sunday whether to adjust the level of its crude oil supply for November, after the announcement by the G7 countries to release 100 million barrels of oil to curb rising fuel prices.

The decision will be agreed upon in a teleconference by the ministers from the oil sector of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, as reported by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), headquartered in Vienna.

These are seven key partners of the alliance created in 2016 by OPEC and several independent ‘petrostates’ which, over more than a year, have gradually rolled back—up to and including last September—two voluntary pumping cuts (for a total of 3.85 million barrels per day (mbd)) that they implemented in 2023 to prop up crude prices.

According to analysts, the most likely outcome is that «the Seven» will choose not to change their production quotas on paper, extending the decision made a month ago—leaving the level of supplies in October unchanged—through the end of November.

The meeting scheduled for this Sunday will take place two days after the G7 announced the immediate release, and over the next four months, of 100 million barrels of petroleum products, especially diesel, from its strategic reserves.

In a statement, the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, confirmed that the goal of the measure is to «bring down prices» of fuels and thereby curb the high cost of living driven by the intense conflicts in Iran and Yemen.

In addition to attacks on oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, there is also the simultaneous collapse of the Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf) and the Bab el-Mandeb (Red Sea), two crucial routes for the transport of oil and other products by sea.

The situation has reduced the production and export capacity of many OPEC members, leading to a growing discrepancy between the official extraction quotas and those of actual pumping.

According to the latest calculations published by the organization, in August the group’s total production stood at 24 mbd. While this was up 1.46% compared with the previous month, it is 15% lower than in January, right before the United States and Israel attacks on Iran, which sparked the war.

Together with the production of its allies, the combined volume of supplies (from OPEC+) reached 38 mbd, which represents 38% of the global oil supply forecast by the International Energy Agency for all of 2026 (100.7 mbd).

Founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait, OPEC is made up today of eleven countries.

In 2016, the group agreed to cooperate with ten other producing nations—including Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan—leading to the creation of the OPEC+ alliance.