Markets are currently betting on “whether it’s a starting point for one move or multiple moves,” and I think the question itself is flawed. What really matters is whether, after the rate hike is implemented, the liquidity that gets withdrawn will be replaced by risk assets.
Let’s lay out a few on-chain facts: BTC has been trading sideways around 84,800 for more than a month. The range from 83,500 to 85,500 hasn’t been broken. Trading volume has been steadily shrinking. With this low-volume consolidation, there’s limited downside room because nobody is dumping; but don’t rush to call for a bull run on the upside either, because nobody is adding leverage.
On the day the rate hike is implemented, it will most likely drop first. The drop isn’t in the coin—it’s in the leverage. What you should do is: don’t open new positions that day; wait until the third candlestick to see whether there’s volume.
My approach is simple: before the rate hike, I don’t use leverage, don’t bottom-fish, and don’t gamble on data. Data is the self-soothing comfort of gamblers—discipline is my alpha.
Did you add positions before the rate hike? Tell me in the comments how much everyone got buried.
Let’s lay out a few on-chain facts: BTC has been trading sideways around 84,800 for more than a month. The range from 83,500 to 85,500 hasn’t been broken. Trading volume has been steadily shrinking. With this low-volume consolidation, there’s limited downside room because nobody is dumping; but don’t rush to call for a bull run on the upside either, because nobody is adding leverage.
On the day the rate hike is implemented, it will most likely drop first. The drop isn’t in the coin—it’s in the leverage. What you should do is: don’t open new positions that day; wait until the third candlestick to see whether there’s volume.
My approach is simple: before the rate hike, I don’t use leverage, don’t bottom-fish, and don’t gamble on data. Data is the self-soothing comfort of gamblers—discipline is my alpha.
Did you add positions before the rate hike? Tell me in the comments how much everyone got buried.