The jobs report is weak, and I'm not in a hurry to go long QQQ yet.
The September jobs report was on the weak side, so I remain cautious about QQQ continuing to rise next week. If employment slows, the Fed may have one fewer rate hike to consider—but if consumption and orders also weaken, then we’d have to reassess how much companies can actually earn.
In the 9/ employment report released on October 2, September added only 29,000 jobs. July and August were also revised downward by a combined 60,000. Such job growth could provide slightly less justification for the Fed to keep hiking rates. However, the Fed only raised rates by 0.25 percentage points in September. Skipping one hike is still far from starting rate cuts.
In the U.S. Treasury’s reference yields on October 2, the 2-year was 4.83% and the 10-year was 5.28%—up by 5 and 4 basis points respectively versus the previous day. There isn’t much change, so you can’t conclude that QQQ is going to fall. But there’s also no clear support for the idea that rate pressure has eased.
If employment continues to weaken, consumption and corporate orders may also be affected. Companies in QQQ could then earn less than originally expected. Employment that’s just a bit weak may ease rate-hike pressure, but if it’s too weak, the stock market may become worried.
If U.S. Treasury yields can pull back, companies’ expectations for future business won’t get worse, and I’d be more willing to look favorably on QQQ. Based on this jobs report alone, I’m still not ready to change my view.
#QQQ #美股 #JobsReport
The September jobs report was on the weak side, so I remain cautious about QQQ continuing to rise next week. If employment slows, the Fed may have one fewer rate hike to consider—but if consumption and orders also weaken, then we’d have to reassess how much companies can actually earn.
In the 9/ employment report released on October 2, September added only 29,000 jobs. July and August were also revised downward by a combined 60,000. Such job growth could provide slightly less justification for the Fed to keep hiking rates. However, the Fed only raised rates by 0.25 percentage points in September. Skipping one hike is still far from starting rate cuts.
In the U.S. Treasury’s reference yields on October 2, the 2-year was 4.83% and the 10-year was 5.28%—up by 5 and 4 basis points respectively versus the previous day. There isn’t much change, so you can’t conclude that QQQ is going to fall. But there’s also no clear support for the idea that rate pressure has eased.
If employment continues to weaken, consumption and corporate orders may also be affected. Companies in QQQ could then earn less than originally expected. Employment that’s just a bit weak may ease rate-hike pressure, but if it’s too weak, the stock market may become worried.
If U.S. Treasury yields can pull back, companies’ expectations for future business won’t get worse, and I’d be more willing to look favorably on QQQ. Based on this jobs report alone, I’m still not ready to change my view.
#QQQ #美股 #JobsReport
