The 10-year yield stays capped at 5.25%; it won’t land until NFP at 21:30

US stocks ended flat on Thursday: S&P 7666.45 +0.2%, Dow 50926.56 up slightly, Nasdaq 26871.60 nearly unchanged. During the day, the 10-year yield touched 5.3445% (the highest since 2002). In early Asian trading it returned to around 5.25%. Reuters expects another rate hike in October of about 25%, down from around 69% a week ago.

Nikkei is about −0.8% to −1.1% (source difference). Hang Seng at midday is 23964, −2.64%. HSBC (HKEX: 0005) is around −5.7% intraday. A-shares are closed until 10/8. Brent is still above 102, while WTI is around 92.5. The US has dispatched an aircraft carrier to the Middle East again; Chinese refineries have paused October finished-product oil exports. Tokyo core CPI is 2.7%, expected 2.4%.

At around $BTC , the Asian session is about USD 84,000–86,000. If the long end does not break, the upside/downside flexibility is limited. Tonight’s NFP consensus is +84,000 to +98,000; the unemployment rate is seen at 4.1%, with August at +162,000.

Will the 10-year yield first return to 5.20% or first hold above 5.27%? Comment section picks a side
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