The linkage between overnight US stocks and the crypto market—let’s make it clear
First, read the numbers for US stocks, then decide whether crypto follows or not.
Lay out the numbers on the board first, then talk about the view.
US 10Y Treasury 5.24% (5-day +1.02%)
Crude oil 92.95 (5-day +0.38%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,666 (5-day -0.49%, Yahoo)
My take: US 10Y Treasury yield is 5.24%, and over the next 5 days it’s likely to rise another +1.02%. The long end is draining liquidity, so the valuation stories for growth stocks and BTC have to step aside.
Crypto in comparison: BTC 84,884 (24h +1.55%), ETH 2,710 (+0.68%). ETH’s 24h move of +0.68% is weaker than BTC’s +1.55%, and the FX rate is 0.03192. Funds are compressing into BTC; for alts, expect-side first—don’t chase the right-hand side.
Next, what to watch: the next candle—whether the 10Y yield can manage to stop. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat any rebound in growth stocks and BTC as a pullback.
My position: only do buy-the-retrace, not breakout chasing. If the structure hasn’t broken, I’ll keep the core position; adding exposure must wait for the pullback setup.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-denominated / Yahoo daily (5-day gain/loss). Missing figures aren’t filled in.
meme—when it hasn’t outperformed BTC, do you still hold it?
#美股 #BTC # Trading observations
Data note (same round as the main text; what’s missing is the dash line):
BTC 84,884 +1.55% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,710 +0.68% ETH/BTC 0.03192
S&P 7,666 -0.49% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,872 -0.25% Yahoo 5-day
US dollar 102 +0.83% DXY 5-day
VIX 16.39 +10.22% Yahoo
Fee rate 0.0020% Position 8.22B (24h +2.94) Long/Short 1.0239 Binance U-denominated
Additional reference: “Outside, people are discussing ‘"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News’.” I’m only using it as background—the conclusion is still based on the main-text numbers.
Personal opinion: the numbers come from the sources shown in the main text. Not trading instructions.
First, read the numbers for US stocks, then decide whether crypto follows or not.
Lay out the numbers on the board first, then talk about the view.
US 10Y Treasury 5.24% (5-day +1.02%)
Crude oil 92.95 (5-day +0.38%, Yahoo)
S&P 7,666 (5-day -0.49%, Yahoo)
My take: US 10Y Treasury yield is 5.24%, and over the next 5 days it’s likely to rise another +1.02%. The long end is draining liquidity, so the valuation stories for growth stocks and BTC have to step aside.
Crypto in comparison: BTC 84,884 (24h +1.55%), ETH 2,710 (+0.68%). ETH’s 24h move of +0.68% is weaker than BTC’s +1.55%, and the FX rate is 0.03192. Funds are compressing into BTC; for alts, expect-side first—don’t chase the right-hand side.
Next, what to watch: the next candle—whether the 10Y yield can manage to stop. If yields keep rising, I’ll treat any rebound in growth stocks and BTC as a pullback.
My position: only do buy-the-retrace, not breakout chasing. If the structure hasn’t broken, I’ll keep the core position; adding exposure must wait for the pullback setup.
Data: Binance spot 24h / Binance U-denominated / Yahoo daily (5-day gain/loss). Missing figures aren’t filled in.
meme—when it hasn’t outperformed BTC, do you still hold it?
#美股 #BTC # Trading observations
Data note (same round as the main text; what’s missing is the dash line):
BTC 84,884 +1.55% Binance spot 24h
ETH 2,710 +0.68% ETH/BTC 0.03192
S&P 7,666 -0.49% Yahoo 5-day
Nasdaq 26,872 -0.25% Yahoo 5-day
US dollar 102 +0.83% DXY 5-day
VIX 16.39 +10.22% Yahoo
Fee rate 0.0020% Position 8.22B (24h +2.94) Long/Short 1.0239 Binance U-denominated
Additional reference: “Outside, people are discussing ‘"bitcoin OR stock market OR US stocks" - Google News’.” I’m only using it as background—the conclusion is still based on the main-text numbers.
Personal opinion: the numbers come from the sources shown in the main text. Not trading instructions.