$APT Retail traders are withdrawing, while the whales are still stubbornly holding the line at full strength from the long side.
Large holders have pushed the long/short positioning ratio to 3.44 (77% longs). It was 3.05 24 hours ago, with a peak of 3.72 over the past 72 hours. Retail traders, meanwhile, have fallen from 1.78 to 1.35 (57% longs), leaving a gap of 2.09 on both sides. Over the past 21 periods, the funding rate was at the top band 14 times at -0.01% (cap level). Even the projected funding rate is back to 0.92 bp—so longs are continuing to pay.
But the price has still been smashed through: the current price is 0.788, down 3.1% in 24h. The 4H chart has broken below the SMA20/50 (0.821/0.819) and the POC 0.810, staying pinned near the lower Bollinger band at 0.772. The active buy/sell ratio is 0.77 versus the average of the past 6 hours, and the most recent candle is 0.62—buy orders have clearly been skewed bearish. Perpetuals basis is -12.3 bp, trading at a discount. The number of OI positions over 7 days is almost unchanged (-1.1%); it even ticked up slightly by 2% in 24h—leverage hasn’t been taken off, and positions are more concentrated in the hands of big holders.
This structure—retail cooling off, whales paying and hard-holding, spot proactively being sold down, and perpetuals trading at a discount—doesn’t look like a healthy pullback. Looking at the 0.77 support line and the 7-day low of 0.74, if it can’t reclaim 0.81, I’m leaning bearish and expecting a long squeeze. What do you think—can this batch of full-strength longs hold through tonight?
$APT #资金费率 #long/short ratio
Large holders have pushed the long/short positioning ratio to 3.44 (77% longs). It was 3.05 24 hours ago, with a peak of 3.72 over the past 72 hours. Retail traders, meanwhile, have fallen from 1.78 to 1.35 (57% longs), leaving a gap of 2.09 on both sides. Over the past 21 periods, the funding rate was at the top band 14 times at -0.01% (cap level). Even the projected funding rate is back to 0.92 bp—so longs are continuing to pay.
But the price has still been smashed through: the current price is 0.788, down 3.1% in 24h. The 4H chart has broken below the SMA20/50 (0.821/0.819) and the POC 0.810, staying pinned near the lower Bollinger band at 0.772. The active buy/sell ratio is 0.77 versus the average of the past 6 hours, and the most recent candle is 0.62—buy orders have clearly been skewed bearish. Perpetuals basis is -12.3 bp, trading at a discount. The number of OI positions over 7 days is almost unchanged (-1.1%); it even ticked up slightly by 2% in 24h—leverage hasn’t been taken off, and positions are more concentrated in the hands of big holders.
This structure—retail cooling off, whales paying and hard-holding, spot proactively being sold down, and perpetuals trading at a discount—doesn’t look like a healthy pullback. Looking at the 0.77 support line and the 7-day low of 0.74, if it can’t reclaim 0.81, I’m leaning bearish and expecting a long squeeze. What do you think—can this batch of full-strength longs hold through tonight?
$APT #资金费率 #long/short ratio
