$MON This price action has a certain “taste” to it.
In the last 15 minutes, the price fell by less than 1%. It looks pretty harmless at first glance, but the OI over the past hour was directly up +7.7%, with notional increasing by over 3 million U. Price is dropping while leverage is being added, and it’s the shorts who are adding—aggressive trades are down -5.3% on the order flow, the buy-sell ratio is 0.90, and no one seems eager to take the other side.
What worries me most is that the OI abnormal percentile is 97.2%. It ranks 7th across the entire pool, and this has been stacked up over multiple consecutive cycles. Also, the funding rate is still in a high percentile recently. This doesn’t feel like retail traders casually opening shorts—it looks more like someone is systematically accumulating near an extreme range.
The traded volume is 6.33 times the normal level, and the depth is there too, so it’s not “fake.”
If shorts have accumulated to this extent, it’s either smart money that sensed something early, or a bunch of leveraged short positions clustered together and waiting to be liquidated. With a 97.2% percentile, when you look back historically, things often don’t end peacefully. I’ll mark this first and watch—whether it accelerates into further downside, or whether it squeezes straight through and wipes out shorts.
In the last 15 minutes, the price fell by less than 1%. It looks pretty harmless at first glance, but the OI over the past hour was directly up +7.7%, with notional increasing by over 3 million U. Price is dropping while leverage is being added, and it’s the shorts who are adding—aggressive trades are down -5.3% on the order flow, the buy-sell ratio is 0.90, and no one seems eager to take the other side.
What worries me most is that the OI abnormal percentile is 97.2%. It ranks 7th across the entire pool, and this has been stacked up over multiple consecutive cycles. Also, the funding rate is still in a high percentile recently. This doesn’t feel like retail traders casually opening shorts—it looks more like someone is systematically accumulating near an extreme range.
The traded volume is 6.33 times the normal level, and the depth is there too, so it’s not “fake.”
If shorts have accumulated to this extent, it’s either smart money that sensed something early, or a bunch of leveraged short positions clustered together and waiting to be liquidated. With a 97.2% percentile, when you look back historically, things often don’t end peacefully. I’ll mark this first and watch—whether it accelerates into further downside, or whether it squeezes straight through and wipes out shorts.