This side of the market is getting a bit wild. $BTC has broken directly below $85,000. The trigger was that the U.S. PMI came in too strong, and the market has started pricing in more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year again—so the Nasdaq tanked along with it.
Honestly, you can’t blame crypto entirely for this round. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007, and the 30-year yield is also nearing the levels last seen in 2004. Williams is still being hawkish, saying the inflation challenge is significant. When the risk-free return is already at this level, it’s pretty clear where the money is likely to go—so a drop a bit lower isn’t really unfair.
Meanwhile, the Middle East is playing out like a TV series. WTI jumped 5% in a day to above $96, Brent closed at $106, and the number of merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits at one point. The Houthis also struck Aramco’s Yanbu facilities. As a result, Iran’s foreign minister said the U.S., if it meets the conditions, will reopen the strait within seven days. Oil prices immediately slipped in response. This kind of headline risk is harder to guess than the candlestick chart—both the longs chasing and the shorts piling on have been slapped back and forth.
My take: rate-hike expectations stacked with geopolitical risk premia. $BTC likely won’t see a big move in the near term, but the “pit” created by liquidity panic—looking back afterward—often turns out not to be cheap. Don’t rush to go all-in and bottom-fish, and don’t panic-sell below $85,000 either. Hold your spot, and keep your position size comfortable for you.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency
Honestly, you can’t blame crypto entirely for this round. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007, and the 30-year yield is also nearing the levels last seen in 2004. Williams is still being hawkish, saying the inflation challenge is significant. When the risk-free return is already at this level, it’s pretty clear where the money is likely to go—so a drop a bit lower isn’t really unfair.
Meanwhile, the Middle East is playing out like a TV series. WTI jumped 5% in a day to above $96, Brent closed at $106, and the number of merchant ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to single digits at one point. The Houthis also struck Aramco’s Yanbu facilities. As a result, Iran’s foreign minister said the U.S., if it meets the conditions, will reopen the strait within seven days. Oil prices immediately slipped in response. This kind of headline risk is harder to guess than the candlestick chart—both the longs chasing and the shorts piling on have been slapped back and forth.
My take: rate-hike expectations stacked with geopolitical risk premia. $BTC likely won’t see a big move in the near term, but the “pit” created by liquidity panic—looking back afterward—often turns out not to be cheap. Don’t rush to go all-in and bottom-fish, and don’t panic-sell below $85,000 either. Hold your spot, and keep your position size comfortable for you.
NFA DYOR
#BTC #比特币 #美联储 #中东局势 #cryptocurrency