$ETH How far is it from the new high in 2026? First look at these three layers of support
For ETH to set a new year-to-date high, what needs to be crossed is not 2,800 or 3,000, but 3,402.89 USDT.
Based on Binance spot data, as of 01:17 Beijing time on September 25, ETH is about 2,685.84 USDT. To reach the highest price this year so far, it still needs to rise by about 26.7%. This refers to the distance in price, not a return forecast.
Before getting there, I will first look at three layers of support.
First layer: whether the price is building up its base.
Recently, ETH has reached a high of 2,807.34 and is still trading below it. For the short term, first watch whether it can hold around 2,600. The next level to observe is 2,560–2,570. On the upside, watch whether it can reclaim the 2,700–2,750 zone and break through the 2,789–2,807 area.
If the pullback after a breakout can hold near the old high, then we should also watch the 3,000 psychological level and the early-year high zone of 3,300–3,403. That would have more basis than simply imagining a new high within the year. These are observation areas, not a guaranteed execution path.
Second layer: whether there is sustained spot demand for the rise.
On September 21, Binance’s ETH/USDT spot trading volume was about 1.88 times the average volume of the previous 20 complete trading days; on September 23, it fell back to about 1.03 times. There has been volume expansion before, but the next push upward still needs to be verified again.
The U.S. spot ETH ETF saw total net inflows of about $536.7 million from September 21 to 23—an encouraging signal. However, the inflow amounts decreased day by day over the three days. What matters more going forward is the sustainability of inflows, rather than directly converting fund flows into price gains.
The third layer: whether ETH has shown strength of its own.
ETH/BTC reflects how much BTC one ETH can be exchanged for. When ETH rises, if this ratio also gradually lifts, it means it’s relatively stronger—not merely following the overall market. This metric still needs improvement right now.
These are observation conditions to increase the credibility of a breakout, not laws that must all be met at the same time.
Refresh the new-year high: you only need to成交 exceed 3,402.89. But when judging whether the breakout can hold, I care more about the daily close above, whether the spot volume can support it, and the follow-up pullback’s acceptance/consolidation afterward.
First, see whether 2,807 can turn from resistance into support; then we can talk about 3,403. Look clearly at the evidence for every step—opportunities shouldn’t just be a single target price.
The data above are snapshots at the time points mentioned; prices need to be updated with the market. For market research only; it does not constitute a promise of returns.
