#Might a thaw between Iran and the US be in the works? Don’t rush to bet—Storms in the Strait of Hormuz haven’t fully settled yet
On September 22, a roughly three-hour meeting in New York was described by Trump as “very good” and “productive.” Iran also confirmed the contact and set conditions: lift the maritime blockade, release frozen assets, and—especially—restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After the news broke, oil prices clearly fell, and the market began reassessing the Middle East geopolitical risk premium.
But don’t mistake “restoring contact” for “reaching a ceasefire.”
Iran’s demands are unlikely to be readily conceded by the US in the short term—lifting the blockade and unfreezing assets, each of which touches domestic politics and relationships with allies. Meanwhile, as Trump talks, he still does not rule out military action, indicating the negotiation table is only part of the bargaining chip set. Without any new ceasefire arrangements and without a verifiable agreement, navigation rights for the Strait of Hormuz still hang in midair.
For the oil market, warming diplomatic expectations do squeeze out some of the war premium. If there is substantive progress later—for example, a partial lifting of the blockade or normalization of shipping—then the geopolitical premium in oil would likely continue to unwind. But as long as the risk of military escalation has not been removed, any incident—any close call—can send the premium surging back instantly.
So the current situation is: direction unclear, news-driven moves, and amplified volatility. In this environment, the biggest taboo is going one-sided and heavily loading up on a bet that talks will either succeed or collapse. Wait for clearer signals—either a ceasefire framework takes shape or the conflict flares up again—before deciding on positioning.
Can the talks drive real progress? Cautiously optimistic, but don’t celebrate early. The wave in the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t yet calmed
On September 22, a roughly three-hour meeting in New York was described by Trump as “very good” and “productive.” Iran also confirmed the contact and set conditions: lift the maritime blockade, release frozen assets, and—especially—restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. After the news broke, oil prices clearly fell, and the market began reassessing the Middle East geopolitical risk premium.
But don’t mistake “restoring contact” for “reaching a ceasefire.”
Iran’s demands are unlikely to be readily conceded by the US in the short term—lifting the blockade and unfreezing assets, each of which touches domestic politics and relationships with allies. Meanwhile, as Trump talks, he still does not rule out military action, indicating the negotiation table is only part of the bargaining chip set. Without any new ceasefire arrangements and without a verifiable agreement, navigation rights for the Strait of Hormuz still hang in midair.
For the oil market, warming diplomatic expectations do squeeze out some of the war premium. If there is substantive progress later—for example, a partial lifting of the blockade or normalization of shipping—then the geopolitical premium in oil would likely continue to unwind. But as long as the risk of military escalation has not been removed, any incident—any close call—can send the premium surging back instantly.
So the current situation is: direction unclear, news-driven moves, and amplified volatility. In this environment, the biggest taboo is going one-sided and heavily loading up on a bet that talks will either succeed or collapse. Wait for clearer signals—either a ceasefire framework takes shape or the conflict flares up again—before deciding on positioning.
Can the talks drive real progress? Cautiously optimistic, but don’t celebrate early. The wave in the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t yet calmed