July, August, and September all saw consecutive rallies for three months. The last time this happened was in 2012—after which the price surged by 2000%.
BTC is now around 86,000. July was up 4.8%, August up 25.2%, and September is currently up 10.9%.
A three-month streak of consecutive gains in BTC’s history has only happened once: in 2012.
What happened after that three-month run?
In October, it first pulled back by 9.7%. Then, from the October low, it surged by over 2000%.
I know this isn’t a rule of thumb—drawing parallels to data from 14 years ago is itself highly controversial. The market is a different size now, the participation structure is different. There’s an ETF now, institutions are involved, there’s pressure from Fed rate hikes, geopolitics, and the shadow of the failure of the CLARITY Act.
But this data makes me pause—not because it proves anything, but because it describes a psychological state.
People who’ve been up for three months already have some unrealized gains. What’s the easiest thing to do with unrealized gains? Anxiety. Not anxiety about losing money, but anxiety about, “Should I sell some first, wait for a pullback, and buy back later?”
That kind of anxiety also existed in October 2012. Among that group, some people sold during the 9.7% pullback and didn’t make it to the subsequent 2000%; others held through it and ended up making the biggest gain in history.
Both of these types of people won’t admit that they hesitated back then.
BTC’s current technical structure: 85,000–83,000 is nearby support; 90,000–91,000 is the next resistance zone. The previous all-time high at 126,000 is still about 45% away.
The fundamental picture hasn’t changed: ETF net inflows of nearly $1 billion per day, and continued institutional buying.
There are real near-term pressures: market expectations for a second FOMC rate hike in December, Q4 seasonality (October is historically weak), and profit-taking that nevertheless created a new yearly high.
The three-month rally isn’t something that must end—but that 14-years-ago episode shows us that the middle 9.7% was the hurdle that many people couldn’t get through.
Right now, are you holding, reducing your position, or considering this question? Tell me your real state of mind.
$BTC
#BTC
BTC is now around 86,000. July was up 4.8%, August up 25.2%, and September is currently up 10.9%.
A three-month streak of consecutive gains in BTC’s history has only happened once: in 2012.
What happened after that three-month run?
In October, it first pulled back by 9.7%. Then, from the October low, it surged by over 2000%.
I know this isn’t a rule of thumb—drawing parallels to data from 14 years ago is itself highly controversial. The market is a different size now, the participation structure is different. There’s an ETF now, institutions are involved, there’s pressure from Fed rate hikes, geopolitics, and the shadow of the failure of the CLARITY Act.
But this data makes me pause—not because it proves anything, but because it describes a psychological state.
People who’ve been up for three months already have some unrealized gains. What’s the easiest thing to do with unrealized gains? Anxiety. Not anxiety about losing money, but anxiety about, “Should I sell some first, wait for a pullback, and buy back later?”
That kind of anxiety also existed in October 2012. Among that group, some people sold during the 9.7% pullback and didn’t make it to the subsequent 2000%; others held through it and ended up making the biggest gain in history.
Both of these types of people won’t admit that they hesitated back then.
BTC’s current technical structure: 85,000–83,000 is nearby support; 90,000–91,000 is the next resistance zone. The previous all-time high at 126,000 is still about 45% away.
The fundamental picture hasn’t changed: ETF net inflows of nearly $1 billion per day, and continued institutional buying.
There are real near-term pressures: market expectations for a second FOMC rate hike in December, Q4 seasonality (October is historically weak), and profit-taking that nevertheless created a new yearly high.
The three-month rally isn’t something that must end—but that 14-years-ago episode shows us that the middle 9.7% was the hurdle that many people couldn’t get through.
Right now, are you holding, reducing your position, or considering this question? Tell me your real state of mind.
$BTC
#BTC
