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正乾商学--四条2
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2026.09.23 Cloudy
Unusual events usually mean something is brewing—what big move are they holding back?
The Fed is clearly hawkish, yet BTC/ETH haven’t fallen; instead, capital has flowed back in. Gold has been weighed down by high interest rates and the strength of the dollar. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% and made it clear that inflation is still elevated. On September 22, Fed officials continued to release hawkish signals; Reuters reported that the market at the time assigned roughly a 90% probability to another rate hike in December.
But at the same time:
On September 21, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $999 million. On the same day, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $270 million. BTC briefly surged above $87,300. Over the past few days, BTC has shown a strong squeeze-like push. ETH has already broken above the prior key technical resistance around $2,661, reaching $2,806.
So right now, the most important thing isn’t simply judging “bull vs. bear,” but this:
Risk assets are challenging a hawkish-leaning macro environment. As long as fund flows continue to support, the trend can keep going. But if ETF inflows and spot buying weaken, high leverage may amplify the downside pullback in return. [After a rally, it’s a period where opportunities and risks intertwine—whether to chase blindly or calmly analyze and wait for the high-side/short plan: execute your plan.]
Recent strategy
BTC
①93500-94100: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②88300--90200: Second pressure zone above
③86800-87600: Overhead resistance level. Don’t chase long; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④84600-85500: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤83600-84200: Strong support. Consider trying a long with a small position
⑥80600-81300: If 82500 breaks and then price pulls back into this range, it’s support on a higher time frame and also the turning point of the trend. Be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦If 80000 breaks, it indicates bulls are weakening, the structure is weakening, and shorts may take over
ETH
①2933-3150: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②2880--2905: Second pressure zone above
③2791--2820: Main overhead resistance. Don’t chase longs; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④2650--2705: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤2550-2565: Strong support; a warning zone for the bulls’ structure
⑥2350--2362: If this pullback range breaks, it’s higher time frame support. If 2336 breaks further, be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦2180--2226: Deep pullback zone. If 2058 breaks, expect a structure reversal
#加密市场总市值重回3万亿美元
Unusual events usually mean something is brewing—what big move are they holding back?
The Fed is clearly hawkish, yet BTC/ETH haven’t fallen; instead, capital has flowed back in. Gold has been weighed down by high interest rates and the strength of the dollar. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% and made it clear that inflation is still elevated. On September 22, Fed officials continued to release hawkish signals; Reuters reported that the market at the time assigned roughly a 90% probability to another rate hike in December.
But at the same time:
On September 21, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $999 million. On the same day, spot ETH ETFs saw net inflows of about $270 million. BTC briefly surged above $87,300. Over the past few days, BTC has shown a strong squeeze-like push. ETH has already broken above the prior key technical resistance around $2,661, reaching $2,806.
So right now, the most important thing isn’t simply judging “bull vs. bear,” but this:
Risk assets are challenging a hawkish-leaning macro environment. As long as fund flows continue to support, the trend can keep going. But if ETF inflows and spot buying weaken, high leverage may amplify the downside pullback in return. [After a rally, it’s a period where opportunities and risks intertwine—whether to chase blindly or calmly analyze and wait for the high-side/short plan: execute your plan.]
Recent strategy
BTC
①93500-94100: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②88300--90200: Second pressure zone above
③86800-87600: Overhead resistance level. Don’t chase long; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④84600-85500: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤83600-84200: Strong support. Consider trying a long with a small position
⑥80600-81300: If 82500 breaks and then price pulls back into this range, it’s support on a higher time frame and also the turning point of the trend. Be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦If 80000 breaks, it indicates bulls are weakening, the structure is weakening, and shorts may take over
ETH
①2933-3150: Bull/bear position. If a big bullish candle breaks out and does not break back, keep pushing higher
②2880--2905: Second pressure zone above
③2791--2820: Main overhead resistance. Don’t chase longs; you can short briefly, and wait to buy on a pullback
④2650--2705: Pullback range. Watch closely and wait for confirmation
⑤2550-2565: Strong support; a warning zone for the bulls’ structure
⑥2350--2362: If this pullback range breaks, it’s higher time frame support. If 2336 breaks further, be cautious—cautious, and even more cautious
⑦2180--2226: Deep pullback zone. If 2058 breaks, expect a structure reversal
#加密市场总市值重回3万亿美元
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.