【I finished a week on SOL, and my judgment got slapped a few times】
Last Friday’s close had me thinking: could SOL finally break straight up? But this week it stubbornly traded between 113 and 122 for 7 days. Up about 20% over those 7 days—sure—but the second half was all sideways.
Honestly, I’m a bit disappointed. Not because of the price, but because I was disappointed in my own forecast. I thought it would push straight through 122, and it didn’t. Looking back, the sentiment index already told me: 71, higher than the weekly average of 66, yet it was already trending down. Market sentiment was hot, while the price hesitated. Doesn’t that mean the inside is already starting to split?
What truly interests me today isn’t the price, but this piece of news: Solana is testing the Alpenglow upgrade, and the finalization time has been cut from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. What does 150 milliseconds mean? You blink and you still won’t be done blinking—this transaction becomes irreversible.
So what does this mean in practice? Exchanges, cross-chain bridges, merchant payments—these scenarios directly benefit. Cross-chain bridges are the most sensitive. Previously, waiting 12 seconds gave hackers time to run a few rounds. Now with 150 milliseconds, that kind of arbitrage is basically cut off. For merchant payments, if it really becomes usable, SOL wouldn’t just be a speculative asset anymore—it would start to show hints of becoming a payment network.
But does the business logic actually work? I’m skeptical. Technically, it can be done—but that doesn’t mean the ecosystem will catch up. Whether developers are willing to migrate, and whether users will actually buy in—those are two different questions. I’ve seen how many “technical revolutions” back in 2017 died at this very step: execution.
So in the short term, this likely has limited impact on price, but it adds fuel to the narrative. The market needs a shot of confidence that “SOL isn’t only for trading—it can be used.”
What am I watching next week? Two things: 1) whether it can hold above 113—if it breaks down below, I’ll have to rethink whether this move is actually over; 2) the progress on the Alpenglow testnet—ignore the mainnet for now and look at testnet feedback. As for that prediction about the flippening of ETH that Samani mentioned—listen to it, but don’t take it as gospel.
The biggest change for me this week is: I don’t dare get that bullish so confidently anymore. After a 20% gain in 7 days, the market needs a breather—and so do I.
What about you? For this period of chop, what’s your mindset—are you waiting for a breakout, or have you started reducing your position already?
Last Friday’s close had me thinking: could SOL finally break straight up? But this week it stubbornly traded between 113 and 122 for 7 days. Up about 20% over those 7 days—sure—but the second half was all sideways.
Honestly, I’m a bit disappointed. Not because of the price, but because I was disappointed in my own forecast. I thought it would push straight through 122, and it didn’t. Looking back, the sentiment index already told me: 71, higher than the weekly average of 66, yet it was already trending down. Market sentiment was hot, while the price hesitated. Doesn’t that mean the inside is already starting to split?
What truly interests me today isn’t the price, but this piece of news: Solana is testing the Alpenglow upgrade, and the finalization time has been cut from 12.8 seconds to 150 milliseconds. What does 150 milliseconds mean? You blink and you still won’t be done blinking—this transaction becomes irreversible.
So what does this mean in practice? Exchanges, cross-chain bridges, merchant payments—these scenarios directly benefit. Cross-chain bridges are the most sensitive. Previously, waiting 12 seconds gave hackers time to run a few rounds. Now with 150 milliseconds, that kind of arbitrage is basically cut off. For merchant payments, if it really becomes usable, SOL wouldn’t just be a speculative asset anymore—it would start to show hints of becoming a payment network.
But does the business logic actually work? I’m skeptical. Technically, it can be done—but that doesn’t mean the ecosystem will catch up. Whether developers are willing to migrate, and whether users will actually buy in—those are two different questions. I’ve seen how many “technical revolutions” back in 2017 died at this very step: execution.
So in the short term, this likely has limited impact on price, but it adds fuel to the narrative. The market needs a shot of confidence that “SOL isn’t only for trading—it can be used.”
What am I watching next week? Two things: 1) whether it can hold above 113—if it breaks down below, I’ll have to rethink whether this move is actually over; 2) the progress on the Alpenglow testnet—ignore the mainnet for now and look at testnet feedback. As for that prediction about the flippening of ETH that Samani mentioned—listen to it, but don’t take it as gospel.
The biggest change for me this week is: I don’t dare get that bullish so confidently anymore. After a 20% gain in 7 days, the market needs a breather—and so do I.
What about you? For this period of chop, what’s your mindset—are you waiting for a breakout, or have you started reducing your position already?