Despite two negative factors of the month—tightening of U.S. monetary policy and the failure of the CLARITY Act crypto bill—Bitcoin’s price not only held steady, but also rose by 10% since the beginning of September. Bitcoin broke out of a tight range around $78K, reaching a new eight-month high of approximately $86K.
A major crypto market maker, Wintermute, in its weekly report noted that Bitcoin for the first time since November closed the week above an important technical indicator—the 50-week moving average—and market participants are discussing the likelihood of crypto growth to the historical peak of $126K by the end of the year.
On September 15, the U.S. Senate did not secure the necessary 60 votes to advance the CLARITY Act cryptocurrency bill, and on September 17 the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its interest rate for the first time since 2023. Experts repeatedly described these events as the most significant in the first month of autumn. Against the backdrop of expectations, the price of Bitcoin barely moved and stayed within the $76K–$78K range.
But after the failure of the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve rate hike in mid-September, the price of Bitcoin temporarily fell below $76K, and then rose to $80K on September 18. By September 21, the rate had broken through $86K; around this level, Bitcoin has been trading as of September 23.
“Green candles warm the soul,” the market maker’s analysts summarize, but they emphasize that “now it’s about forming new levels and taking profits.” Experts also noted that unlike the upward moves in the previous weeks, starting in mid-August, the current price action looks “solid.”
“We expect that this week attention will switch back to BTC, ETH (with a major update [Glamsterdam]), SOL and HYPE ([possible upside to] $100). And for now, the level of excitement seems healthy,” the analysts wrote.
Wintermute noted the importance of moving above the 50-week moving average, but reminded that in March 2022 a similar pattern turned out to be “false” and led to a subsequent decline. However, in current market conditions, analysts believe this factor indicates that the price bottom was reached in June.
In August, investment bank Galaxy also drew attention to this. Historically, in four out of five cycles, Bitcoin price growth above the 50-week moving average signaled the end of the bear market.
From hedging to a bet on upside
Wintermute analyzed market trends to determine further possible moves in Bitcoin’s price. In the options market, experts saw an increase in demand for contracts that assume growth in crypto assets rather than trading within a sideways range.
Separately, analysts highlighted market participants’ discussion about whether the historical peak of $126K will be reached before the end of the year. While experts consider such a scenario premature, “the very fact that counterparties are pursuing it indicates a shift in sentiment from hedging to growth.”
Experts also stressed that the move above $86K was accompanied not only by a high concentration of borrowed funds in Bitcoin trading, but also by genuine demand, noting capital inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—primarily into Bitcoin, although there has been observed interest in Ethereum (ETH) as well.
The Fed’s rate hike by 25 bps to 3.75–4% did not become a serious problem, although this event is traditionally considered negative for cryptocurrencies. In Wintermute’s view, the main issue was not the fact of the hike itself, but the Fed’s confident rhetoric.
What will happen to the Bitcoin exchange rate
Unlike in the previous Wintermute report, they did not specify the nearest price levels for Bitcoin. They pointed to a “packed” week of macroeconomic events that could correct investors’ sentiment: remarks by the head of the Fed Kevin Warsh, the visit of China’s President Xi Jinping to the United States, and the release of macroeconomic business-activity data.
As experts noted, “for now, the level of excitement looks healthy.” They named the next major crypto event as the technical update to the Ethereum blockchain—Glamsterdam—scheduled for the end of the year.
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