#Nasdaq hits new highs for two consecutive days; central bank cues should be viewed separately
Over the past two days, the market has shown two signals that look somewhat different: the Nasdaq has set consecutive record highs, and meanwhile the central bank has released two messages.
Actually, these two central bank messages should be viewed separately.
The first is the regulatory line.
On September 22, the PBoC reiterated again that virtual currencies do not have legal tender status. Conducting activities related to virtual currencies within the country is illegal financial activity. At the same time, it clearly defined regulatory boundaries for overseas entities providing related services to the mainland, as well as for RMB stablecoins, etc.
This line mainly affects participation channels and the scope of business operations.
Simply put: which funds can participate, which businesses can be carried out, and which stablecoin and RWA-related models need to be regulated—these boundaries have not changed yet.
So its impact on BTC is more about how the mainland market participates and the capital conduits available, rather than directly determining the global BTC pricing logic.
The second is the monetary and financial line.
On September 21, the PBOC said clearly at a symposium with foreign financial institutions that it will implement moderately accommodative monetary policy to create a favorable monetary and financial environment for economic growth and the stable operation of financial markets. At the same time, it will continue to promote high-level opening-up in finance, improve cross-border payments, and facilitate the international use of the RMB.
This line affects things differently.
It corresponds more to overall liquidity, the financial market environment, and risk appetite.
So by putting these two lines together, you can understand it as:
Regulatory line: governs participation channels and business boundaries; monetary line: affects liquidity and the financial market environment.
Now look at the Nasdaq making consecutive new highs—this essentially corresponds to the third line: global risk appetite.
So the whole market can be broken down into three layers right now:
Nasdaq makes new highs → improvement in global risk appetite → risk assets get support
PBOC moderately accommodative policy → improved expectations for the financial environment and liquidity → support for asset valuations
Virtual currency regulation is reaffirmed → mainland participation channels remain constrained → does not mean the global BTC pricing logic has changed
That’s also why I think when looking at BTC now, you can’t just interpret it simply as “the PBOC tightens regulation, so BTC is bearish.”
More accurately, the wording would be: the regulatory boundaries have not been loosened, but the monetary and financial environment and global risk appetite are another matter.
What truly determines whether BTC can continue to strengthen next is whether these variables can work together:
Nasdaq remains strong → BTC stays strong → ETF inflows continue → ETH starts to follow higher → altcoin capital spreads out.
If the Nasdaq keeps making new highs, but BTC instead falls back below a key support level, that suggests that the risk-on sentiment from U.S. equities has not truly transmitted into the crypto market.
So for this current cycle, I’d rather separate the central bank into two lines: one governs whether participation is possible, and the other affects whether there is liquidity in the market; what the Nasdaq reflects is whether global capital is willing to take risk.
Only by overlaying these three lines do we get the real macro backdrop for BTC right now.
